US Markets Today: Hanging on to Upper levels

Oct 24, 2014, 9:27 AM EDT

Okay bears, hers is some bad news for you. U.S and European markets are holding on to the upper levels of their previous bounce back, which indicates that markets are in a mood to continue rising.

Especially DAX, along with major U.S. indexes had been making “higher low” patterns which is really alarming- for bears. Does that include me, the self-proclaimed bear? Nope. I am a staunch believe of the doctrine “do as markets do”, so no matter how much I want U.S. markets to fall below their previous low levels, if markets turn positive, I’ll do the same :)

U.S. stock futures have recovered a lot from their earlier low levels. That means major indexes in these markets will continue to trade in their yesterday’s range. Only if the high or low level from last session is broken in the intra day session today, then we can expect a trend in the same direction.

So, give markets some time to settle after the opening bell, let it create today’s initial high and low levels, and then wait for a breach in any of those levels. Range bound markets tend to be highly volatile, so don’t expect one way trend today, unless some news or rumor causes a bearish stampede or bullish frenzy.

Good luck, trade carefully and enjoy the session!

See you later.

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European Markets Today: Subdued with Ebola Anxiety

Oct 24, 2014, (3:00 AM EDT)

Looks like lazy bears have started prowling global markets again :)

Many hours ago, when Asian markets had just opened for trade, U.S. stock futures suddenly jumped off the cliff. It was just one straight jump. It was caused by a news report from New York, about a doctor being infected with Ebola virus there.

U.S. and European stock futures are still trading highly negative, indicating a lower opening in European markets soon, and most probably, in U.S. markets too after a few hours.

More than any report, I believe it was the closing pattern in U.S. markets yesterday that has caused these negative signals in bigger markets.

U.S. markets had rallied in the first half of yesterday’s trading session, but right before the closing bell, major indexes quickly climbed down to close near their opening levels. That showed selling pressure at higher levels and created a “top hammer” candlestick in technical chats which is usually a negative signal and indicates a trend reversal soon.

Despite a possible lower opening, both of these markets will remain range bound till they breach the low levels of last week.

That means, expect highly volatile trading session just as we have been witnessing in European markets recently. Also, there will be many economic reports adding fuel to the fires of volatility.

It will be interesting to see if European markets run down in fear or Ebola o stay put in their current range.

Good luck, have fun, have a great session in stock markets today!

See you later.

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US Markets Today: Range Bound, Volatile

Oct 23, 2014, (9:20AM EDT)

A negative closing yesterday, and now higher stock futures- all indicating range bound trading pattern in U.S. markets today.

As discussed before, indexes trading above yesterday’s closing or lower levels will indicate continuation of present range. Only a closing below yesterday’s low levels will confirm bearish pressure in U.S. markets.

Although Dow Jones had suffered big losses yesterday, the index still managed to close above the previous session’s low levels, which should sound warning bells for bears.

In European markets, DAX (Germany) is also making “higher low” since last few sessions which is a positive signal and till this index closes below its previous sessions’ low, the bounce back will remain in place.

For today’s trading in U.S. markets, keep an eye on intra day pivot levels of major indexes. Any index trading above its pivot level will indicate positive tides and only a drop below that level will trigger a negative session.

Expect high volatility too, just like previous many sessions.

Good luck, enjoy the session, have a great day in stock markets today!

See you later.

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European Market Today: Range bound, volatile, heavy data ahead

Oct 23, 2014, (3:03AM EDT)

European markets are facing twin challenges today. Yesterday’s negative closing in U.S. markets and today’s heavy pouring of economic reports from euro zone.

Expect a highly volatile session in these markets today. European markets have formed a new range at the bottom of their erstwhile, bigger range. Yesterday’s low levels will mark the first “floor” of this new range and provide support to various indexes.

If any index drops lower than that numbers, then expect a trend reversal in the index. If, indexes trade above yesterday’ low levels, then consider the bounce back to be alive and active.

Good luck, trade carefully and have a great session in market today!

See you later.

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Indian Markets Today: Special Session for Diwali

23 Oct, 2014, (12:14 PM IST )

laxmiIndian markets are closed today on occasion of Diwali, the day of worshiping goddess of wealth, Lakshmi.

But, in the evening, Indian markets will open for a special, short Diwali session of trading.

Apart from being special for common people, Diwali is the most important day for business community in India where both traditional and modern businesses perform “pooja” of their  account-books. Indian stock markets hold special “muhurat” (auspicious occasion) trading session on this day and today also, Indian markets will have that  special, short session.

According to mythological folklores, goddess Lakshmi visits human homes at mid-night to check the cleanliness and those who have kept their homes clean, tidy and beautiful, receive bounties of wealth from her.

At midnight Indian time today, U.S. markets will be busy trading and I hope that the Indian goddess of wealth will bless small traders in those markets with some money too :)

(especially bears :) )

For all our Indian readers and traders, we wish that you be blessed with success in stock markets and may Lakshmi pour gold pots over your heads :)

Usually, Indian markets gain on special Diwali sessions and we might see a repeat performance in today’s Diwali session too.

Have fun, enjoy the festivities and relish the day, fellow traders in India. Here is what I wish as a Diwali gift for you all :) :)


See you later!

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U.S. Markets Today: Volatile, Start Waiting for Fed

Oct 22, 2014, (9:30AM EDT)

I have been thinking, thinking, thinking, but there is nothing new to write about U.S. markets today, other than what I had already written at the start of Asian markets’ session.

The Fed’s meeting is next week, market have reached their major resistance levels and apart from a short jump on rumors of the ECB’s bond buying program during opening hours of European markets, U.S. stock futures have been mostly hovering  near their previous closing.

You get the picture?  Because that’s all that is going to happen in U.S. markets today. Only a rumor about any new QE will take markets higher from current levels. Otherwise, expect either a narrow, range bound trading a pattern like European markets, or some lower trading if profit booking starts taking wings at these levels.

So, keep an eye on day’s resistance levels for major indexes. Any sign of weakness around that level will trim the numbers. On the other hand, if any index continues to trade above its pivot levels, then you can expect a positive session and  bears like me will have to depart for Himalayas and wait there in some cave for this bounce back to end :)

Good luck, have fun, have a great session in markets today!

See you later.

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Indian Markets Today: Global cues to decide trend

22 Oct, 2014 (8:28AM IST)

SGX Nifty is indicating a “Diwali jump” opening in Indian markets today :)

What after that? Will Indian markets close also with a bang? Or with a whimper like some water soaked firecracker?

(Being a bear, I would like to see the second closing option in these markets :) )

But the intra day trend will depend on global cues, just like last many sessions. Indian markets will face added pressure of next week’s F&O expiration along with the usual anxiety associated with the Fed’s session.

Indian markets will remain closed on Friday for Diwali holiday. I’m not sure if markets will have a full session on Thursday or will have only special, short “muhurat (opening) trading” on that day. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) India website was earlier showing holiday on both these days, but now, it is showing markets closed only on Friday. I guess the rally has made everyone greedy for extra session :)

Nifty will follow global cues. If U.S. stock futures and later, European markets stay narrowly range bound, Nifty will also try to stay range bound after a gap up opening. If global cues slide, Nifty will slide down with double speed and traders would like to book profits and take their money off the table before Diwali.

So, keep an eye on U.S. stock futures as trade accordingly in Nifty.

Good luck, have fun, have a great session in stock markets today.

See you later.

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World Markets Today: Halting at the top

22 Oct, 2014 (8:17AM IST)

Oct 21, 2014, (10:47pm EDT)

Two things are pressurizing current bounce back in global markets; lower volumes, indicating lesser enthusiasm in markets for buying, and the Fed’s meeting next week.

That’s why Asian markets are trimming gains after a higher opening, including SGX Nifty.

U.S. and European stock futures are trading slightly negative. Going by lower volumes in last couple of session when these markets were jumping up, especially in DAX (Germany), I’m not sure if we’ll see any major gains in these markets in remaining sessions of this week.

Right now, the most probable trend for today’s session in global markets looks to be narrowly range bound at current high levels.

Another, and lower probability, will be that markets continue to rally.

U.S. stock futures will continue to lead global markets.

Right now, everything is moving in slow motion in global markets. European markets will help in picking up action-speed in a few hours from now.

Till then, keep an eye on U.S. stock futures and your local index’s resistance levels. The bounce back rally will most probable halt at those upper levels.

The best trading strategy for day trading today? Do as markets do :)

Good luck, enjoy the session and trade carefully in stock markets today.

See you later.

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US Markets Today: Volatile at Higher Levels

Oct 21, 2014, (9:30AM EDT)

As expected, U.S stock futures and European markets changed their negative numbers mid-session and turned positive.

U.S. stock indexes had indicated more gains by their trading pattern yesterday and today, a gap up opening will take major indexes near the roof of their current smaller range.

For Dow Jones, that “roof” will be near 16,550 mark. If, by any chance this index closes above that level, then expect a bigger trend reversal in U.S. markets in coming sessions.

Otherwise, watch for a weakness near those levels in this index and for a pause, resistance for this short rally in U.S. markets.

European markets are also waiting for trend cues from their big brothers. DAX has a strong resistance near 8,850. If this index closes above 8,860 then its next stop will be 9,000 mark.

All this will depend upon today’s closing levels in U.S. markets.

Opening in these markets is of course going to be quite positive. But after that, watch the day’s resistance levels for signs of weakness.

Good luck, have a great session in markets today.

See you later.

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Indian Markets Today: Short range, volatile session

21 Oct, 2014 (8:40AM IST)

Global cues are turning highly volatile and SGX Nifty is trading in a short range, within yesterday’s opening and closing levels.

Indian markets are dominated by global cues, but trying very hard to stay positive in this short trading week, as markets will go on extended weekend (again!) from Thursday  for another festival (again!) Diwali.

Indian markets are caught in a dilemma- global markets are weak and next week, it will be F&O expiration. Usually markets turn lower in such conditions.

BUT- Diwali is a festival of worshipping Lakshmi, the Goddess of wealth. It’s a festival of buying, buying and buying everything under the sun! Then how can anyone sell in markets? Arrghhhhh! What a big problem!

So, I guess Indian markets will solve this problem by turning range bound, going up and down but not falling significantly.

Please remember, this is purely guesswork and not necessarily that markets will follow it. Still, Indian markets like to run up for any excuse so bears, be careful in these markets till next week :)

Bank Nifty had a big, range breaking jump yesterday. If this index trades positive today, then Nifty might also get some support and stay in the last session’s range. If any of the index breaks above yesterday’s high level then expect more positive trading in that index. Any breach below yesterday’s low levels will trigger a bigger selling pressure in that index.

Expect high volatility in Indian markets through the session. Global cues will decide trend direction in Nifty also.

Good luck, have fun, have a great session in markets today.

See you later.

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