Indian Markets Today: Nifty at support, Volatile session

 16 Sep, 2014 (7:50AM IST)

NSE index Nifty is near its 20-Day Moving Average ( 8011) and that might provide support to Indian markets is early session.

But this support will depend on rupee’s trading pattern, which fell much below 61 in its last session. Today, in global markets rupee has found some support as dollar weakens.  If this pattern continues after the opening bell in Indian markets, then Nifty is expected to trade in the upper levels of yesterday’s range (8030- 8077). For Nifty, 8049 will be crucial, and the index will need to cross above this level to trade positive.

Global cues are negative and will dominate Indian markets in the second half like previous few sessions. We might see a closing near yesterday’s closing levels or another lower closing like last few sessions.

Upside for Indian markets is limited- unless global cues change. Nifty has 8070 as its major resistance now. Selling at high will continue to be a better trading strategy for Indian markets.

Keep an eye on rupee and Nifty’s pivot levels, and trade accordingly.

Good luck, enjoy the session in markets today!

See you later.

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World Markets Today: Volatile at support as USD retreats

16 Sep, 2014, (7:45 AM IST)

Sep 15, 2014, (10:15 PM EDT)

One day before the Fed- and the might Dollar index is seeing profit booking from dollar bulls, including me who has turned dollar bear today :)

Remember, there are no bulls or bears in markets- we all are traders and we must trade with the markets. So, when a index or stock is in bullish trend, become a bull, when it falls, become a bears, and you’ll have money in both your hands.

Don’t do the opposite (bullish in a falling markets or bearish in an uptrend; then market will have money in both its hands- money taken from YOUR pockets :) )

So, today, be ready for small upticks in markets as the Dollar index is witnessing profit booking a day before the Fed’s crucial meeting. This breather in USD is also providing some support to equities, as other currencies gain and support their local markets.

U.S. markets stuck to their lower support levels in the last session like ants dipped in super glue. Today, till the time of writing, U.S. stock futures are clinging to green line, desperately trying to stay positive.

European markets have a highly volatile session ahead as a barrage of economic reports will accompany today’s trading session in euro zone.

SGX Nifty is trading negative but might get support from rupee later in the day.

Global markets are expected to be range bound and slightly positive in their early hours of trading, but closing levels might again see losses as nobody will be willing to leave money on the table for the next day.

Like classic range bound trading pattern, the session will be highly volatile and give intra day traders opportunities to trade in both direction, if only they pay attention to support and resistance levels.

Keep that in mind and trade carefully.

Good luck, enjoy the volatility, have a great session in stock markets today!

See you later.

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US Markets Today: Volatile Session ahead

Sep 15, 2014, ( 9:30 AM EDT)

Time for a range bound and choppy session in U.S. markets. I hope it won’t be a small range, otherwise it will be a yawn inducing day :)

European stock markets are trading range bound, U.S. markets are also expected to trade in similar fashion. Using pivot levels could be useful for such a session.

For Dow Jones, keep an eye on 16,989 level. Above this level, the index might turn positive and below this number the index might continue to trade negative.

S&P500 is finding support at 1980 level. Above this level, this index will continue to hold on to its current range.

That’s all for now. Markets are about to open, so get ready to throw your dice and play the game :)

See you later.

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Indian Markets Today: Volatile, waiting for inflation data

15 Sep, 2014 (8:37AM IST)

Indian markets are going to see a lot of action today, so be ready with your vomit bags , parachutes and seat-belts :)

Much awaited inflation numbers will arrive at mid-day for these markets and speculators will have a good chance to churn markets before (or even after) that.

Rupee has fallen to 61 mark but this level might also provide some resistance to USD and rupee might recover before economic reports arrive.

That would mean a recovery in Indian indexes too, after a gap down opening.

So, even though SGX Nifty is highly down at the time of writing, don’t just jump in the ring with the opening bell and start short selling Nifty. Wait for markets to stabilize a bit, check market and rupee’s early trend and then start trading. There is always a next trade around the bend so don’t hurry; sit back and relax, let that trade come to you and then put your money only on profitable trades. These trades will arrive with support and resistance levels, so keep an eye on those levels too.

This strategy will be good only till inflation numbers come in. After that, global cues and rupee’s trading pattern will decide trend in the second half.

Overall, no matter how good or bad today’s economic reports are, after the initial reaction, Indian markets are going to follow global cues. If European markets and U.S. stock futures recover later in the day, Indian markets might see a recovery as well.

Keep an eye on rupee’s trading in first half, global cues in second half and trade carefully.

Have fun, enjoy the day, have a great session in stock markets today!

See you later.

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World Markets today: Correction deepens

15 Sep, 2014, (8:31 AM IST)

Sep 14, 2014, (11:01pm EDT)

Welcome back to a bearish start to world markets today; just as I had written many hours ago :)

Asian markets have tumbled, SGX Nifty has crashed, U.S. and European stock futures have sustained deep cuts by the time of writing.

BUT, world markets will hold back till the Fed’s meeting is over on Wednesday so expect a highly choppy trading session in markets where support levels might still see some buying pressure and markets will try to climb up from those levels.

U.S. stock futures have lost too many points in early session and their opening bell is nearly 11 hours away. Markets cannot sustain such deep cuts till that time so some kind of bounce back is possible from these levels. European markets have a few economic reports scheduled for today but not as many that will cause any impact.

So, it’s the Fed effect dragging down global markets which will try to climb down one support level at a time, instead of tumbling down like a waterfall.

Expect a volatile session in global markets today, with a negative bias but be careful of some bounce back from support levels. Markets have 3 days to  wait for the Fed and they will try every trick in the book to stay range bound. Watch resistance and support levels of your local index and trade accordingly.

Good luck and enjoy the first session of this trading week !

See you later.

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World Markets Next Week: Negative start ahead?

Sep 14, 2014

Fellow traders, I hope you too are enjoying your “freakend” :)

Fun, Food, Family, Friends and no Freaking about market trends  - that’s what I call a freakend in this online tavern of crazy stock markets and crazier traders, rest of the world can keep its weekend :)

So, let me add to the fun with some good news for bears. Till the closing bell in U.S. markets on Friday- which was below support levels for Dow Jones;  stock futures in major markets were pointing to a negative opening in world markets on Monday.

Nikkei (Japan), ASX200 (Australia) and DAX (Germany) stock futures closed with low numbers and SGX Nifty ended with some -38 points loss by the time world markets stopped to trade on last Friday.

There have been many statements over the weekend about Japanese and European economy from policy maker, which I’m not sure how markets will react to. So, we’ll have to wait for some more hours to see how Asian markets open on Monday. Indicators for Indian markets are not good as rupee fell against USD and closed below 61. That’s why SGX Nifty tumbled too, indicating an open near 8066 levels for NSE index Nifty.

U.S. indexes had a good fall too, at least Dow Jones did, closing comfortably below its major support of 17,000. S&P 500 too fell but it survived its major support of 1980 by a few points.

For U.S. markets, the week will start with important economic reports that will continue through the week and on Wednesday, the Fed will declare its short term monetary policy.

Apart from economic activities, volatile geo-politic situations will also keep global stock markets on tenterhooks. Russia-Ukraine tensions, EU’s sanctions on Russia, independence poll for Scotland are some of the such events of major importance.

Over all, the upside for global markets has been slipping down gradually and it might continue to do so unless some free liquidity news comes about the European economy. If that happens then bears like me will freak again :)

If not, then expect volatile but negative start in global markets in some 17 hours from now.

Till then, enjoy your free time, rest and recharge your mental batteries (to do that, read this news about 24-carat gold “wine” from Dubai :) why wasn’t it launched when I was there?!)

Be ready for a hectic week ahead in global stock markets.

See you in the global trading ring soon!

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US Markets Today: Will Dow Jones Survive Support?

Sep 12, 2014, (9:24 AM EDT)

“Happy hours” are about to begin in stock markets :)

U.S. markets are about to ring their opening bell and impatient trading addicts like me are hopping from one foot to another, to see what happens to Dow Jones. Will it survive the support level of 17,000- which it has done till now this week, or, will we see U.S. markets closing below their support levels?

Good economic reports have added to negative numbers in U.S. stock futures. More economic reports will be arriving later today and the big, bad wolf, the Fed is waiting for market just around the corner. No wonder we are seeing red numbers all over the place, from European markets (mostly) to U.S. stock futures :)

But, be warned of high volatility in markets today, just as we have been witnessing through the week. Range bound markets tend to become very choppy as half of the traders become buyers and the other half turns into sellers. Obviously, nobody wins :)

Only those, who keenly observe resistance and support levels, and are quick to exit their trades at small intervals can succeed in such markets.

So do that, watch for a bounce back from support levels or drop down from resistance levels and trade accordingly.

Have fun, enjoy the last trading session of this week in stock markets!

See you later.

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Indian Markets Today: Choppy on rupee, global cues

12 Sep, 2014 (8:15AM IST)

Indian traders have a busy session ahead of them today.

They would need to keep track of rupee’s trading pattern, global cues, European markets’ trend, SGX Nifty’s numbers, Nifty’s pivot levels etc etc. One would need ten heads like Ravan to trade in Indian markets today :)

SGX Nifty is trading slightly negative at the time of writing, as USD has been gaining against Indian rupee.

Indian markets have been dropping as rupee tumbled in last couple of session. Global negative cues also dragged down Nifty.

Today, once again, rupee’s trading pattern will play a crucial role as it nears the break-point of 61.

If rupee turns range bound and finds support at 61 (which is looking unlikely right now), then Indian markets might take a breather and gain some points.

Otherwise, if rupee continues to tumble, then expect Nifty to trade back to yesterday’s lower levels (8050).

This is a strong support level so watch carefully for a bounce back from this level if rupee also gets support. Otherwise, Nifty might tumble to 8020 mark after that.

Expect Indian markets to be highly volatile like previous sessions. Like other markets, selling at resistance and buying at support has become good day trading strategy for Nifty also.

Enjoy the session, have a great day in stock markets today!

See you later.

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World Markets Today: Range Bound, Volatile on Data, Fed

12 Sep, 2014 (8:11AM IST)

Sep 11, 2014, (10:40pm EDT)

U.S. markets dropped, then bounced back from support levels in their last session, indicating that these market-leaders were not ready to start any trend before the Fed’s meeting next week.

A similar choppy and range bound pattern is being seen in Asian markets. Today’s session will see a flurry of economic reports from euro zone so volatility is expected to increase in global markets once European markets open their gates.

European markets have been very choppy this week. Yesterday was once such day when these markets saw a deep drop and then recovered to close near the opening levels.

Indian markets saw a similar trading pattern.

Such a trading pattern is good for intrad day traders as markets follow support and resistance levels, giving clears cues about trade entry and exit points. It also means, traders must not look for one-way trend in markets and must be quick in booking their profits.

Expect a similar volatile and range bound session in world markets today, and till the Fed’s meeting next week. The bias is negative; that means don’t expect markets to close higher.

Good luck, have fun, have a great session in markets today!

See you later.

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US Markets Today: Range Breach, Bearish Trend Ahead

Sep 11, 2014, (8:56AM EDT )

Sometimes even I’m amazed how markets follow technical rules and behave in a very predictable manner.

That is how I was able to predict earlier that U.S. markets were going to see a gap down opening today for a breach in major support levels. (that’s called indirect bragging :) )

So here we are, with U.S. stock futures tumbling with even bigger speed after Jobless Claims numbers came slightly higher. In any other time, U.S. stock futures would have rallied on such negative economic reports. But now that the Fed has made its intentions clear about a rate hike very soon, markets are in a hurry to race towards earlier low levels.

Dow Jones, as I had written yesterday, had a major support at 17,000 and needed a gap down opening to breach this barrier.

Likewise, S&P 500 had a tough “floor” to its current range at 1880 and only a gap down opening could take the index below its current range levels.

If things don’t change till the opening bell in U.S. markets in about half an hour from now; we might see a comfortable breach of range in these markets which might trigger a short term bearish trend.

After that, a choppy session may follow as the ECB president Mario Draghi is scheduled to make a public speech later in the day. Markets might wait for his comments and the second half of today’s session will provide better cues about market-mood.

Expect a lower opening, volatile session and most probably a lower closing in U.S. markets today.

Give markets some time to stabilize in case of a bigger gap down opening before jumping in the trading ring. Usually markets tend to see some buying come in after such opening.

Good luck, have fun, have  a great session in markets today!

See you later.

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