India Markets Today: Banking Sector A Cause for Worry

23 October 2017 (9:04 AM IST)

After a highly negative session on Diwali Muhurat trading, which is an auspicious occasion for India markets, it looks like we can see a range bound or negative session again in these markets.

Banking sector has become a cause of worry for these markets due to their trillions of rupees NPAs. Its also earning season and increase in these Non Paying Assets may drag down Bank Nifty further.

Right now, Bank Nifty is at its major support of 24,000. If this support is breached then a negative trend can start in Bank Nifty. If it survives above this level, then a range bound pattern will continue.

Nifty is in much better position, still trading above its shortchanged term Moving Averages.

Nifty has intra day pivot at 10160. Above this mark, resistance is expected near 10197-10248-10285 and support is expected near lower levels of 10109-10072-10021.

Watch these levels and trade with the trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

 

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World Markets Today: Volatile, Subdued Session ahead

23 October 2017 (9:04 AM IST)

22 October 2017 (11:34 PM EDT)

I am not a pessimist but the current “hope rally” in U.S. markets is worrying me. If you see monthly charts of Dow Jones, you can a see an exactly similar pattern which the index had made before the 2008 financial crash.

Maybe global markets are aware of the dangers of this reckless rally in U.S. markets and that is why, major Asian markets are trading negative in spite of a new historic high in U.S. markets last Friday.

Only Japan is trading higher and that too due to lower yen in currency markets against the dollar.

U.S. and European stock futures are mixed at the time of writing, not showing much enthusiasm.

SGX Nifty is higher after a crash in India markets’ last session, indicating a range bound pattern.

Expect global markets to trade mostly on local cues and have mixed trading patterns. Market volatility may remain high. Check the trend in your local index and trade with it.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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US Markets Today: Uptrend Continues, Mixed Trading Pattern

20 October 2017 (9:22 AM EDT)

U.S. stock futures are trading quite high, indicating a mixed trend in U.S. markets today.

Yesterday, Nasdaq had closed lower so today’s high futures indicate a range bound start for this tech index, while Dow Jones had closed positive so today’s early gains may take this mega index to a new high.

So, could it be that yesterday’s drop was a blip in the current strong uptrend in U.S. markets? Or, will major indexes turn range bound at these levels instead of rallying ahead?

We’ll know the answers only by the closing levels today.

After a positive open, markets usually have two trend possibilities- a continuous climb, or a positive but lower closing (compared to opening levels) which will make markets range bound.

Watch how major indexes trade after the initial positive opening and then trade with the short term trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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World Markets Today: Volatile, Mixed Trend Continues on Regional Cues

20 October 2017

Global stocks are exhibiting a range bound, volatile and mixed trend on regional cues. So, after having a negative close yesterday, European stock futures are trading much higher in early Asia session, indicating a trend within previous session’s high and low levels.

U.S. markets recovered after a negative opening overnight and except Nasdaq, other major indexes closed positive after recovering their earlier fall. Today, U.S. stock futures are trading with big gains in starting session.

SGX Nifty is also trading with considerable gains after falling yesterday and dragging down major India indexes in their short, special trading session of Diwali festival. India markets will remain close today and will prone with global markets on Monday.

Surprisingly, Asia markets are showing a mixed and mostly subdued trend. Japan, Shanghai and South Korea are hovering near the red line, and Australia is showing only mild gains.

Expect global markets to trade mostly on their regional and technical cues. U.S. markets are still in an uptrend but other markets are not blindly following that trend, which usually happens.

So, watch the local intra day trend in your markets and trade accordingly.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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US Markets Today: Long Overdue Correction Arrives, Gap Down Opening ahead

19 October 2017 (9:12 AM EDT)

Finally, it looks like we are going to see a correction in U.S. markets today, which has been long overdue.

As we have been writing previously, global stock markets have been ignoring the current rally in U.S. markets and have been trading on local cues. We have also discussed lower European futures in our previous post and European markets are now trading with big losses following those earlier negative numbers due to regional worries.

U.S. stock futures are also highly negative today. Futures of Dow Jones are down by nearly -100 points, S&P and Nasdaq futures are also showing similar deep cuts, indicating a big gap down opening in U.S. markets today.

U.S. markets are showing such highly negative numbers for the first time after almost two month’s strong uptrend.

Why this sudden downturn in U.S. stocks?

Because the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has given the same warning which we have been writing all along- that, stock markets could crash if tax reforms do not materialize!

We have been expressing our concerns about this “hope rally” in U.S. markets and have been warning that all hope rallies usually have a disastrous end. A statement like that from the Treasury Secretary is nothing less than a warning to markets to cut down their expectations and come down to realistic levels. It also could be a ground preparation to end  stock markets’ expectations and get them ready for the inevitable disappointment of having to tax reforms. We have seen this kind of “preparation” from the Fed whenever the central bank is about to change its policy.

So, now we just have to watch how low U.S. markets will go after the opening bell and a very low opening levels. If major indexes start making lower highs and lower lows, that would indicate a trend reversal. However, if major indexes bounce back from any support level, then it will indicate a sideways trading pattern.

Watch carefully how the trend unfolds, then trade accordingly.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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World Markets Today: Spooked by Dow Jones Rally?

19 October 2017

U.S. markets had a mixed session overnight, just as we had written in our previous post. Dow Jones had another strong rally and closed above 23,100 but S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed flat.

Surprisingly, Asia markets are trading mostly negative, even though China GDP has come as expected. Could it be that the Dow Jones rally is spooking markets about a bubble? European stock futures are also trading negative in early Asia session. U.S. futures are just below the red line but the uptrend in U.S. markets is intact at this point so small negative numbers don’t have any meaning. SGX Nifty is some -30 points down but India markets  have closed for the weekend to celebrate Diwali so SGX Nifty numbers are also useless today.

Expect global markets to continue to follow a mixed trend where different markets and individual indexes are expected to trade in the town ways, mostly dominated by local cues.

Watch the trend in your local index; which can be up, down or sideways, and trade accordingly.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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US Markets Today: Futures Points To Big Gains in Dow Jones

18 October 2017 (8:27 AM EDT)

Futures of Dow Jones are showing nearly 100 points’ gains at the time of writing, indicating a jump up opening for the index, if the opening level follows these gains

However, Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures are showing only mild progress. That means we may see a mixed session in U.S. markets today.

Earning season has started and based on the company results of any specific index, this kind of “unmatched volatility” will continue is the days to come.

The overall uptrend is intact in U.S. markets and as we have been writing, such strong trend are excellent opportunities for accumulating profits through swing trading. Comparatively, day trading may not be as beneficial. If you are day trading, then watch the opening levels, give markets time to settle then follow the intra day trend. If you are swing or positional trader, just keep building long positions at every dip- and do keep strict stop loss levels in all your trades.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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India Markets Today: Range Bound, Reversal from Overbought Levels

18 October 2017 (8:44 AM IST)

As we had been writing for a couple of month, India markets are trading within a broad range and this week, Nifty staged a breakout of that range to make new historic highs.

But, with that jump, Nifty also entered oversold zone on technical charts and considering that Bank Nifty has been showing weakness, it was obvious that Nifty will face a correction soon.

SGX Nifty is down by -34 points in early trade, indicating a lower opening in India markets.

Bank Nifty will have its weekly Options expiration today as these markets will be closed for Diwali celebration in next two sessions and will open only on Monday.

Such a long weekend, technical cues and volatile  global trend may trigger some profit booking in India markets today.

So we have two possible trends for these markets- a sideways pattern where markets will trade within previous range; or a negative trend. India markets are highly speculative in nature so it will be prudent to remain cautious about a third possibility, that of positive trend too.

Nifty has intra day pivot at 10232, Support comes below this mark, near levels of 10214-10193-10174 and resistance is expected near 10253-10272-10292.

Watch these levels and trade with the short term trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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World Markets Today: Volatile, Range Bound, Trading on Local Cues

18 October 2017 (8:44 AM IST)

17 October 2017 (11:14 PM EDT)

My apologies for missing the session in U.S. markets. The blame is all on my doctor who, instead of just giving me some cough medicine, insisted on getting allergy tests done. So, he made money like bulls of U.S. markets and I lost like bears who were betting that Dow Jones will not touch 23,000.

Well, we have been telling all along that it was only a matter of time when Dow Jones will touch 23,000 and it did so in the overnight session. It was the 50th record high made by this mega index within this year. That sounds like a bubble, doesn’t it?

Maybe that’s why global stocks are showing no enthusiasm in Asia where major markets are trading mixed on local cues, completely ignoring the continuous rally in U.S. markets.

European stock futures are also ignoring that record high of Dow Jones and are trading negative, after having a negative session yesterday.

SGX Nifty is also down by nearly -40 points, indicating a gap down opening in India markets today.

Only U.S. stock futures are trading positive, indicating that the tax-reforms “hope rally” will continue in these markets.

Expect a volatile and mostly range bound trading pattern in global markets where the intra day trend will be dominated by local and currency cues.

Watch how your markets trade and follow the short term trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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India Markets Today: Negative Data, Rupee Can Stop the Trend

17 October 2017 (8:37 AM IST)

India markets have been having a very volatile trading pattern recently, with sudden, big drops and equally big recoveries within a single session.

Yesterday was a similar session where major indexes had a high open, then dropped down steeple and then recovered most of those losses. Various data relating to inflation came mostly negative, giving markets hopes of rate cut from the RBI, but a dangerous drop was seen in the WPI (Wholesale Price Index), which is a major indication of economic growth. This index fell down much below expectations, and as a result, Indian rupee has dropped against dollar.

This is why SGX Nifty is down by -20 points at the time of writing. Also, India markets will have a very short week due to Diwali and Bank Nifty will see its weekly Options expiry tomorrow, which may increase volatility in markets.

Nifty had a breakout yesterday, but it needs confirmation. Bank Nifty had made a negative candlestick on charts by closing lower than its opening levels, showing weakness.

For intra day trading in Nifty, its pivot mark will be at 10216. Resistance levels will be near 10257-10284-10325 and support is expected near 10189-10148-10121 levels.

Watch how Nifty trades within those levels and follow the short term trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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