US Markets Today: Volatile on Data, Range Bound Pattern

May 31, 2016, (9:26AM EDT)

Just before the opening bell in U.S. markets, a number of reports from the U.S. economy have arrived with positive numbers.

These numbers are expected to keep major U.S. indexes range bound as now everybody in financial markets is waiting for the ECB’s meeting day after tomorrow and the Fed’s crucial meeting next week.

European markets have already become range bound at the top of their current range and are trading with slightly negative numbers.

U.S. markets are also expected to follow a similar pattern, either slightly negative within their previous range, or may be a trend reversal from current higher levels.

It will be make a very interesting pattern on technical charts if U.S. markets open high and close low today. Because then, the possibility of a “Double Crow” trend reversal pattern might emerge if these markets open with a gap down on Thursday.

DAX (Germany) and Nifty (India) are also on the verge of developing such trend reversal pattern. But that will still be dependent on two more closings.

For Dow Jones, 17,928 marks as a bigger resistance while 17,828 has been its major support in last 2-3 sessions.

These levels will mark the immediate trading range in this mega index and broader U.S. markets.

Watch these levels and trade with the trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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Indian Markets Today: Volatile, Looking for another Jump

 31 May, 2016 (9:09AM IST)

Indian markets have enjoyed a quite strong rally in last few sessions, and today, Nifty might try to seek another breakout above its major resistance of 8,206 level.

A higher SGX Nifty is indicating that Nifty might open just near this level and it will be interesting to see if buyers can propel the index over this level and still keep buying. That will happen only if global cues continue to remain positive. In that case, Nifty might go up to 8,225 or 8,251 levels.

Otherwise, a profit booking might come in at higher levels and keep Nifty either range bound or low if European markets take a breather.

Volumes are not much and rupee is falling, these two factors kept Nifty in a very narrow range yesterday.

For today’s intra day session, Nifty might remain range bound between yesterday’s high and low level- that is between 8,202 – 8,150.

If Nifty falls below 8,175 then it might retreat to lower support.

If the index keeps trading above this pivot level, then there will be chances of a slightly higher session.

Everything will depend on global cues. So keep an eye on those cues and trade with the trend.

If markets remain range bound (as against a clear breakout or breakdown) then expect high volatility as markets will jump and decline between support and resistance levels.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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World Markets Today: Consolidation Phase before the ECB

31 May, 2016 (8:57AM IST)

May 30, 2016, (11:27pm EDT)

Global markets are back to their full strength in this session as markets in the U.S. and the U.K. will reopen after a longer weekend on Tuesday.

Yesterday, world markets remained in a consolidation phase by trading in smaller ranges and we might see a repeat pattern today as markets get ready for the ECB’s monetary policy on Thursday and bigger markets hover near their range highs.

Although Asian markets have turned quite positive after a mixed start, and U.S. stock futures are also trading with gains, the trend in European markets will decide whether global markets continue to climb higher or hit a pause button and retreat slightly.

DAX (Germany) is very close to its big resistance of 10,373 and its futures are struggling to remain positive in early session today. If European markets retreat from higher levels, global markets will also a similar pattern.

Expect a narrowly range bound and volatile trading session in global markets. Volumes have started thinning, indicating that big players have stepped to the side-lines and markets do not have required volumes for a higher push.

Watch out for a reversal from range highs and bounce back from range support at intra day level.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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Indian Markets Today: Volatile Session on Rupee, Global Cues

30 May, 2016, (8:39 AM IST)

Indian markets might face a highly volatile session today as various cues are pointing in opposite directions.

Last Friday, after the Fed Chair’s comments about an imminent rate hike, Indian rupee started sliding against dollar and fell below 67.  Today, the Indian currency is adding to its losses which might be a negative cue for Nifty and Bank Nifty.

On the other hand, Indian markets are known to ignore any local cue and blindly follow major global cues such as U.S. stock futures, which are currently trading higher.

That is why SGX Nifty has also been piling on to its gain after a gap up opening and is now trading nearly 50 points higher.

If Nifty follows these gains then the NSE index could open near its first intra day resistance zone of 8,188- 8,200.

If bigger markets continue to trade positive then Nifty might seek to touch 8,300 on longer term.

The index will have major support near 8,232 levels and below that level, 8,100 and 8,077 will mark as lower supports, keeping the index range bound.

Volumes have been declining so traders should watch how markets trade after the gap up opening.

Consecutive lower highs in the trend line will indicate a trend reversal but a bounce back from the support levels will mean continuation of uptrend. Watch for these technical signals the trade with the dominating trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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World Markets Today: Volatile Session on Data, Fed

30 May, 2016 (8:39AM IST)

May 29, 2016, (10:47 PM EDT)

The joys of the weekend are over and traders are back in global markets chasing that elusive gold-pot at the end of the rainbow (or technical chart).

Markets in the U.S. and the U.K. will remain closed today so volumes are expected to remain thin. Yet volatility will be high as euro zone will receive many important economic reports and global markets will digest and act on the Fed Chair’s comments last week about possible rate hike in coming months.

Markets is Asia have opened with mixed numbers. Nikkei (Japan) is trading with gains as yen slipped against dollar but Chinese and Australian markets are trading in the red. U.S. and European stock futures are also trading higher, so is SGX Nifty, indicating a gap up opening in Indian markets soon.

Interestingly, Currency, Commodities and Bond markets are pricing in a rate hike by the Fed although global stocks are not showing any effect of that possibility till now.

In currency markets, the Dollar index is trading higher while Gold is continuously dropping. Bond yields are also higher, where they had jumped last week after the Fed Chair Janet Yellen expressed hopes of rate hike in coming months.

As U.S. markets are closed, the opening session in global markets might look to Nikkei for trend cues and later to DAX.

Expect global markets to trade with higher volatility as volumes had started dropping in last two sessions, indicating that markets might be getting ready for a breather after last week’s big rally.

That could mean a higher opening and positive but narrow range bound session at current levels, or a closing lower than the opening levels. Local currencies might play in deciding intra day trend for various markets as is being seen in Japanese markets.

Watch how your local index trades and follow that trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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US Markets Turn Lower After Fed Chair Yellen Hints at Rate Rise

May 27, 2016, (Update: 2:04 PM EDT)

The Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said, a rate hike would be “appropriate” in coming months as the U.S. economy is showing signs of improvement.

With that, the Dollar index jumped up and major U.S. stock indexes trimmed whatever small gains they had made earlier in the session.

Although U.S. markets are still in the green and till Dow Jones keeps above 17,800, the range will continue in this index and broader U.S. markets.

However, if Dow Jones falls below 17,800 then we could see more losses in the index and in the overall intra-day trend in U.S. markets.

Earlier: (9:02 AM EDT)

Oil futures have once again tumbled down from their $50 levels and trading below $49, the U.S. GDP has improved but not as much as expected, and the Fed Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech at 1.15 PM EDT later today.

Enough reasons to keep U.S. markets subdued in the first half and maybe volatile in the second if the Fed Chair gives some hint about a rate hike or delay in the central bank’s rate hike plans. In the second scenario markets could pile on to this week’s rally.

If, on the other hand, there is any “rate hike coming soon” kind of hint, then market could see a stamped of profit booking from higher levels before the long weekend.

Overall, an interesting session is expected in U.S. markets today where swiftly falling Oil futures could play spoil sport in the first half.

It will also be interesting to see if the Fed Chair will cause a lower trend in U.S. markets in the second half, or reveal something that the markets already knew and had been rallying on that inside information (conditions not good enough for a rate hike any time soon).

Expect a highly volatile session in U.S. markets today. Major indexes could remain below this week’s high in the first half. Trend in second half will depend on the Fed Chair’s comments.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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Indian Markets Today: Volatile on Rupee, Global cues

 27 May, 2016 (9:10AM IST)

In last two sessions, Indian markets rallied with big numbers as rupee rallied against dollars and global stocks also jumped higher.

Today, both these cues are taking a pause and Indian markets could also become slow paced, waiting till European markets open and provide trend cues.

Rupee is facing resistance at 67 and global cues have also cooled down. SGX Nifty is following that pattern with a gain of only 14 points, indicating slightly positive or flat opening in NSE Nifty.

Indian markets also start their fresh F&O contract cycles today so last two session’s marathon rally may not pick up speed today- unless bigger markets start climbing again.

Nifty is expected to remain range bound and will follow global cues. 8033 is the main level for Nifty and if the index trades above this level, it will have chances of making more gains.

However, if Nifty falls below this level then 8000 and 7,984 will provide next support to the index, keeping it within last session’s range.

Range bound markets tend to be highly volatile so watch out for sudden drops or bounces from resistance and support levels.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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World Markets Today: Volatile, Range Bound on Oil, Fed

27 May, 2016 (8:53AM IST)

May 26, 2016, (11:23 PM EDT)

U.S. markets paused their rally overnight and closed with slightly negative numbers overnight after trading in a narrow range, as expected.

Global markets have started their new session in Asia with a similar pattern as Oil futures once again dip below $50 and traders retreat, waiting for the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday.

From next week, various central banks will start declaring their monthly monetary guidance and polices and the Fed is widely being seen as getting ready for another rate hike in its June meeting.

Not only stocks, but currency and commodity markets have also started trading on speculation about the Fed’s rate hike plan and currency markets might affect global stock today as Oil drops and Dollar climbs.

Expect a small range bound and volatile session in global markets today as major indexes have reached their current range tops and might not make a bigger move before the fed Chair’s comments.

Of course, there is always a possibility of any insider information which could trigger a big up or down movement in global market.

To anticipate that, watch the trend line and trade with the dominating trend. Any index trading above previous high will have more room to go up while any index that trades negative should be watched for a bounce back or continuation of lower trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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US Markets Today: Narrow Range Bound, Volatile session

May 26, 2016, (9:23AM EDT )

U.S. markets are expected to trade in a narrow range today, as major indexes have come back to trade close to their range top levels.

European markets are also showing a similar trading pattern. Slow and narrowly range bound.

These markets are now waiting for the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday. Today’s economic reports have been good from the U.S. economy, with a drop in jobless claim numbers and surge in Durable Goods Orders. Some more economic reports will be released after the opening bell and slight volatility could be triggered by those results, but not much.

Both Crude and Brent Crude Oil futures are trading above $50, another heathy sign for inflation in developed markets.

On technical charts Dow Jones has upper limit near 17,928 – 17,977- 18,050. Which of these levels will stop a higher trading in Dow Jones? That remains to be seen.

U.S. markets can either continue with their uptrend after a positive open, or, close lower than their opening levels.

Watch which way the trend line tilts after the first half an hour or so, then follow the same trading direction.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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Indian Markets Today: Volatile Session on F&O Expiration

26 May, 2016 (9:13AM IST)

Officially this month’s Futures & Options contracts will finish today in Indian markets, but unofficially, it had happened yesterday when Nifty and Bank Nifty jumped up over their 20-Day Moving Average with a gap up opening and short traders ran to cover their positons a day earlier than the scheduled F& O expiration session.

As a result, Indian markets had a long rally, where Nifty stretched back near to its range top of 7,800.

Today, global cues and F&O expiration could keep Indian markets volatile and range bound.

For Nifty, 7,895 will act as the major pivot and support level. As long as the index trades above this level, chances will be that it will try to recapture 7,980 level.

However, if falls below 7,895 and stays lower, then the index might go down to other supports of 7,849 and 7,809, which becomes its stronger support once again.

Global cues might lead intra day trend in these markets and a lower trend in bigger markets could bring in a trend reversal in Indian markets too.

If global markets start gaining again, then a range bound or positive pattern will continue in these markets also.

Good luck, enjoy the session

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