Indian Markets Today: Volatile on Local, Global Cues

25 Oct, 2016 (9:03AM IST)

Dollar is surging, which is bad news for Indian rupee. right now, rupee is poised to breach the mark of 67, putting pressure on Indian equities.

SGX Nifty is pointing to a flat/ negative opening in Indian markets and NSE Nifty today.

As we have been writing, for the past many sessions, Nifty has failed to break its technical levels of 20-Day, 50-Day Moving Averages. Now these levels are turning into a big resistance for the index.

Today, Nifty is stuck between these two levels which happen to be at 8,710- 8,683. Only a breach above or below these levels will provide any strong move in Nifty. Else, we will continue to see a narrowly range bound and highly volatile session in this index and broader Indian markets.

For intra-day trading today, Nifty has pivot at 8,710. Above this level, Nifty may try to recapture yesterday’s high level of 8,735 which also marks its first resistance.

If Nifty falls below 8,710 then it may go down to its first support of 8,683. Below that level, 9,657 and 8,630 will provide other supports just as we have been counting since last four sessions.

Expect a highly volatile and range bound session in Indian markets today- and till Nifty breaches any of its range levels.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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World Markets Today: Volatile, Mixed Session

25 Oct, 2016 (8:51AM IST)

24 October 2016 (11:21 PM EDT)

Stock markets around the world are showing a mixed pattern today; more on local cues in the absence of any strong global cue.

U.S. markets closed positive overnight and going by the slightly high numbers in U.S. stock futures, these markets may continue to trade within their current range but in the upper half of the range (as opposed to its lower half where major U.S. indexes were trading last week).

European stock futures are also positive, indicating that they will continue with their short term uptrend. DAX has faced resistance near 10,800 level yesterday and it will be interesting to see if that resistance will once again push down this leading European index today.In that case, U.S. stock futures may also give up their gains and global markets may retreat after a positive opening in European markets.

That means, today, the first possible range in global markets will be that of tomorrow’s high and low levels.

Any index, that breaks above its previous high – and stays above it, will see a positive trend today. While any index that drops down below its previous closing, may go down to its previous low or even breach that level.

Global markets are range bound at present, waiting for the Fed’s meeting on November 2. So expect a lot of bouncing around within the major support and resistance levels.

The Dollar index took a breather yesterday but today this mega currency is again turning up. Any bigger gains in the Dollar index may put pressure on global stocks later.

Watch your local index carefully and trade with the short term trend which may remain highly volatile.

Good luck, enjoy the session!


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US Markets Today : Volatile within a Range

24 October 2016 (9:23 AM EDT)

U.S. markets are expected to trade in a range like previous sessions. As discussed earlier, major indexes are trading in  range. Dow Jones is facing resistance near 18,200- 18,300.

Today, U.S. stock futures traded higher as the Dollar index cooled down on profit booking.

A higher opening confirms the range bound nature of U.S. markets. Therefore, after a high opening, major indexes will either continue to trade positive and remain restricted by upper levels of current range, or come down to close near support levels.

Traders should watch for selling pressure near resistance levels and trade with the intra day trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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Indian Markets Today: Volatile, Range Bound on Global Cues

, 24 Oct, 2016 (9:12AM IST)

Indian markets are expected to trade within the range of their last two sessions.

Nifty still has bigger resistance zone from 8,700- 8,724 levels.

Global cues are still weak and dollar is still stronger which is stopping Indian markets from rallying up.

This is F&O expiration week for these markets and volatility is usually high during such times.

For intra day trade in Nifty, 8684 will be pivot level and as long as Nifty stays above this level, it will try to go up.

However, below this level the index will seek support near 8,660 and 8,627 marks.

Expect a highly volatile and range bound session in Indian markets today where global cues will dominate trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

For intra day trade,

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World Markets Today: Weak, Range Bound, Volatile Session

24 Oct, 2016 (9:00AM IST)

23 October 2016 (11:30 PM EDT)

Global stock markets are swinging with U.S. stock futures that are themselves trading based on the direction of the Dollar index.

The Dollar index is continuing with its uptrend, and an hour ago, this index was trading at session’s high, forcing U.S. stock futures to touch the red lien along with other marketsn and indexes.

Since then, a slight profit booking in this mega-currency index has given a support to global stocks but the gains look capped at the time of writing in stocks.

U.S., European stock futures  and Asian markets are very slightly positive at this time. SGX Nifty had been flat and now, with a breather in other markets, has gained some 20 points.

Expect global markets to trade with high volatility and remain narrowly range bound in case of a positive session. Because any buying support will be purely speculative and technical without volume supports.

As discussed before, bigger markets are trading near their range tops and may not make any big move before the Fed’s meeting next week.

That may keep global markets range bound and highly volatile too.

Watch the last week’s high and low levels and withing those levels in your local index.

The first half in global markets is expected to follow the trading pattern of U.S. stock futures while European markets may dominate the later half.

Good luck, enjoy the session!


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World Markets Next Week : Technical Outlook

Sunday, 23 October 2016

In just a few hours, global stock markets will open their doors for a new week.

Before the opening bells start ringing in Asia, here is a quick technical look at various indexes and markets.

Everything is going hunky-dory for bears except European markets that are (for reasons unknown to me) holding on to their positive trend. Especially DAX (Germany) is on a roll. This index had been relentlessly climbing up and because of its uptrend, other markets are also holding on to their current range. DAX had finished the previous week at 10,710. The index has a resistance near 10,747 and if even that level is breached then DAX may go up to 10,800- 11,000 level.

In other European markets, FTSE 100 (U.K.) has also been going higher, now making a double top. This index has resistance near 7,028 and support at 7,000. That means, the index can go in either direction. The support needs to be broken for the double top formation to become effective.

Similarly, CAC 40 (France) is also near its range top and may trade between resistance (4,557) and support (4,520) levels.

U.S. markets slipped towards lower half of their broad range and major indexes like Dow Jones and S&P 500 are trading below their important Moving Averages. That is a negative technical signal but these markets are probably waiting for the Fed’s next meeting (November 2) and may not make any bigger move before that.

Indian markets are balanced precariously. Nifty and SGX Nifty both closed almost at their 20-Day Moving Average and tried very hard to close above this level. Unfortunately, a drop in Indian rupee against dollar thwarted speculators from taking Nifty above 8,700 level. Although they succeeded in taking  Bank Nifty above its major MA levels. (Just imagine, rupee was falling and still Bank Nifty kept going up!).  A major resistance for Bank Nifty is close to 19,700 mark and if this level cannot stop Bank Nifty, then the index may go up by 100 points more or even up to 19,900. Likewise, Nifty faces resistance at current levels (,8,700- 8,726.) If the index succeeds in crossing above this resistance zone and starts trading above 8,730 then chances will be for more gains in the index.

The most interesting trading pattern is developing in the Dollar index which has been running on rocket fuel and if the greenback picks up from where it left last Friday, then it will be heading towards the mark of 100.

Trend in the Dollar index may affect global stocks on Monday. So, watch this currency index and U.S., European stock futures in Asian session to guess which way markets are going.

Things are looking brighter for bears but European markets are a hurdle for them. If these markets turn lower on Monday- for whatever reason; then global stocks may have a gloomy session.

Otherwise, be ready for a highly volatile and range bound session.

See you soon in trading rings!

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US Markets Today: Crash Open, Volatile Trading

21 October 2016 (9:20 AM EDT)

Highly negative U.S. stock futures are indicating a gap down opening in U.S. markets today.

I had been tracking Dow Jones futures that have already lost -100 points and at one point these futures were down by -120 points and trading below the psychological support of 18,000.

Going by these numbers, Dow Jones may go down to its major support of 18,060 in the early opening trade. The important thing to watch will be, whether this index can find support near that level and bounces back to survive above 18,000- or if it will trade below 18,000 today.

The Dollar index continues to climb and is putting pressure on stocks. European markets are flat and holding up their current levels because those markets are waiting for their leaders’ summit in Brussels. Near the closing bell, these markets may also follow the dominant trend in U.S. markets.

All eyes will be on Dow Jones and its survival strength near major range supports. If it survives above 18,000 today, U.S. markets will be considered range bound. If it does not, then U.S. markets will start a correction today and global markets will follow it in next week.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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Indian Markets Today: Under Pressure on Global, Technical Cues

21 Oct, 2016 (9:07AM IST)

Indian markets do not have any single positive factor in their favor at this time, whether technical, global or local.

Locally, rupee is falling against dollar. Globally, bigger markets are trading negative and technically, both SGX Nifty and Nifty are facing pressure of their 50-Day & 20-Day Moving Averages at current levels.

SGX Nifty is trying its best to keep above this technical level and is trading with very minor cuts. That indicates that Nifty will also open almost flat, near 8,700. As discussed yesterday, Nifty has a major technical resistance zone between 8,700- 8,709 and that resistance kept Nifty down yesterday, is spite of speculators trying very hard to take Nifty above this resistance.

Today, we can expect some volatile trading near 8,700 in Nifty. Like yesterday, 8,724 will once again provide a stiff resistance to the index. On lower levels, 8,676- 8,652 and 8,627 marks will provide support to Nifty.

Expect a volatile session in Indian markets today where global cues will determine the intra day trend, as usual.

Good luck, enjoy the session!


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World Markets Today: Under Pressure as Central Banks Retreat

 21 Oct, 2016 (8:55AM IST)

20 October 2016 (11:21 PM EDT)

U.S. markets closed with negative numbers overnight as the European Central Bank did not give any hint of any new QE. There was high volatility in currency and stock markets as the Dollar index surged, indicating that markets now believe a rate hike by the Federal Reserve is highly likely in December. Any such possibility will obviously put pressure on global markets which is being seen in early trading session in Asian markets.

The Dollar index is continuing with its rally and is now at 98.50, a level where it was in early 2016.

This surge in dollar is putting pressure on smaller currencies also and thus, emerging markets like India are expected to be under pressure as their currencies fall.

U.S. and European stock futures are trading negative at the time of writing. Asian markets are also trading mostly negative and SGX Nifty is slightly negative, indicating a somewhat lower opening for Indian markets soon.

Expect global markets to trade under pressure and remain highly volatile as bigger markets have no support to go forward from their near range top levels. U.S. markets have made a new, smaller range in the lower half of their broader range. These trend setting markets will either remain range bound or go down to retest their previous support levels.

Global markets are expected to follow a similar trend.

Expect markets to trade within their previous session or this week’s range. Upside seems limited for global markets at this time. If European markets retreat, then we may see a negative session in world markets.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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US Markets Today: Volatile after the ECB Policy

20 October 2016

U.S. stock futures are slightly negative after the ECB left its lending rates and QE amount unchanged.

As seen in last few sessions; U.S. markets have been strictly range bound. Especially Dow Jones has been range bound and hesitant to cross above 18,200.

U.S. markets are expected to remain range bound and their upside may remain restricted. If lower supports are breached in this range then global markets may also reverse their trend after recent bounce back.

Expect a volatile session in U.S. markets today. Second half may show a clearer trend.

Earlier :(8:45 AM EDT)

The European Central Bank kept its lending rates and QE amount unchanged in its policy meeting today. The ECB President Mario Draghi made positive comments about improvement in euro zone economy and said that the central bank did not discussed about increasing its QE program in this meeting.

At his comments, European markets and U.S. stock futures dropped. Earlier, there have been speculations (as there always are before such meetings) that the ECB may declare more QE this month.

As always, the speculations proved just idle speculative chatter by media and now, stocks are turning lower with disappearing dreams of more free liquidity from the ECB.

Currency markets are witnessing strong upheaval with every comment of Draghi. Euro and the Dollar index are swinging wildly with each currency taking its turn to go up or down.

Meanwhile, Jobless Claims reports from the U.S. economy have also come in line and mostly along expected numbers so U.S. stock futures have lost any excuse to rally  from that front also.

Both DAX and Dow Jones are near their rang tops and have restricted upside. Let us see if stock turn down today.

Stay tuned for more about U.S. markets.


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