U.S. Markets Today: Volatile, Start Waiting for Fed

Oct 22, 2014, (9:30AM EDT)

I have been thinking, thinking, thinking, but there is nothing new to write about U.S. markets today, other than what I had already written at the start of Asian markets’ session.

The Fed’s meeting is next week, market have reached their major resistance levels and apart from a short jump on rumors of the ECB’s bond buying program during opening hours of European markets, U.S. stock futures have been mostly hovering  near their previous closing.

You get the picture?  Because that’s all that is going to happen in U.S. markets today. Only a rumor about any new QE will take markets higher from current levels. Otherwise, expect either a narrow, range bound trading a pattern like European markets, or some lower trading if profit booking starts taking wings at these levels.

So, keep an eye on day’s resistance levels for major indexes. Any sign of weakness around that level will trim the numbers. On the other hand, if any index continues to trade above its pivot levels, then you can expect a positive session and  bears like me will have to depart for Himalayas and wait there in some cave for this bounce back to end :)

Good luck, have fun, have a great session in markets today!

See you later.

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Indian Markets Today: Global cues to decide trend

22 Oct, 2014 (8:28AM IST)

SGX Nifty is indicating a “Diwali jump” opening in Indian markets today :)

What after that? Will Indian markets close also with a bang? Or with a whimper like some water soaked firecracker?

(Being a bear, I would like to see the second closing option in these markets :) )

But the intra day trend will depend on global cues, just like last many sessions. Indian markets will face added pressure of next week’s F&O expiration along with the usual anxiety associated with the Fed’s session.

Indian markets will remain closed on Friday for Diwali holiday. I’m not sure if markets will have a full session on Thursday or will have only special, short “muhurat (opening) trading” on that day. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) India website was earlier showing holiday on both these days, but now, it is showing markets closed only on Friday. I guess the rally has made everyone greedy for extra session :)

Nifty will follow global cues. If U.S. stock futures and later, European markets stay narrowly range bound, Nifty will also try to stay range bound after a gap up opening. If global cues slide, Nifty will slide down with double speed and traders would like to book profits and take their money off the table before Diwali.

So, keep an eye on U.S. stock futures as trade accordingly in Nifty.

Good luck, have fun, have a great session in stock markets today.

See you later.

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World Markets Today: Halting at the top

22 Oct, 2014 (8:17AM IST)

Oct 21, 2014, (10:47pm EDT)

Two things are pressurizing current bounce back in global markets; lower volumes, indicating lesser enthusiasm in markets for buying, and the Fed’s meeting next week.

That’s why Asian markets are trimming gains after a higher opening, including SGX Nifty.

U.S. and European stock futures are trading slightly negative. Going by lower volumes in last couple of session when these markets were jumping up, especially in DAX (Germany), I’m not sure if we’ll see any major gains in these markets in remaining sessions of this week.

Right now, the most probable trend for today’s session in global markets looks to be narrowly range bound at current high levels.

Another, and lower probability, will be that markets continue to rally.

U.S. stock futures will continue to lead global markets.

Right now, everything is moving in slow motion in global markets. European markets will help in picking up action-speed in a few hours from now.

Till then, keep an eye on U.S. stock futures and your local index’s resistance levels. The bounce back rally will most probable halt at those upper levels.

The best trading strategy for day trading today? Do as markets do :)

Good luck, enjoy the session and trade carefully in stock markets today.

See you later.

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US Markets Today: Volatile at Higher Levels

Oct 21, 2014, (9:30AM EDT)

As expected, U.S stock futures and European markets changed their negative numbers mid-session and turned positive.

U.S. stock indexes had indicated more gains by their trading pattern yesterday and today, a gap up opening will take major indexes near the roof of their current smaller range.

For Dow Jones, that “roof” will be near 16,550 mark. If, by any chance this index closes above that level, then expect a bigger trend reversal in U.S. markets in coming sessions.

Otherwise, watch for a weakness near those levels in this index and for a pause, resistance for this short rally in U.S. markets.

European markets are also waiting for trend cues from their big brothers. DAX has a strong resistance near 8,850. If this index closes above 8,860 then its next stop will be 9,000 mark.

All this will depend upon today’s closing levels in U.S. markets.

Opening in these markets is of course going to be quite positive. But after that, watch the day’s resistance levels for signs of weakness.

Good luck, have a great session in markets today.

See you later.

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Indian Markets Today: Short range, volatile session

21 Oct, 2014 (8:40AM IST)

Global cues are turning highly volatile and SGX Nifty is trading in a short range, within yesterday’s opening and closing levels.

Indian markets are dominated by global cues, but trying very hard to stay positive in this short trading week, as markets will go on extended weekend (again!) from Thursday  for another festival (again!) Diwali.

Indian markets are caught in a dilemma- global markets are weak and next week, it will be F&O expiration. Usually markets turn lower in such conditions.

BUT- Diwali is a festival of worshipping Lakshmi, the Goddess of wealth. It’s a festival of buying, buying and buying everything under the sun! Then how can anyone sell in markets? Arrghhhhh! What a big problem!

So, I guess Indian markets will solve this problem by turning range bound, going up and down but not falling significantly.

Please remember, this is purely guesswork and not necessarily that markets will follow it. Still, Indian markets like to run up for any excuse so bears, be careful in these markets till next week :)

Bank Nifty had a big, range breaking jump yesterday. If this index trades positive today, then Nifty might also get some support and stay in the last session’s range. If any of the index breaks above yesterday’s high level then expect more positive trading in that index. Any breach below yesterday’s low levels will trigger a bigger selling pressure in that index.

Expect high volatility in Indian markets through the session. Global cues will decide trend direction in Nifty also.

Good luck, have fun, have a great session in markets today.

See you later.

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World Markets Today: Volatile, Under Selling Pressure

21 Oct, 2014 (8:33AM IST)

Oct 20, 2014, (11:04pm EDT)

Another interesting session starts in global stock markets!

U.S. stock futures are tumbling down, Asian markets are tumbling down and bears are back at work :)

In last couple of hours, global markets have witnessed high level of volatility with Asian indexes, SGX Nifty and U.S. and European stock futures swinging up and down with Chinese economic data.

This volatile trend is expected to continue through the session as global markets are struggling within a shorter range and this “confinement” will create lot of pressure on lower and upper levels of this range.

U.S. stock futures are still leading global markets. U.S. markets had closed in positive in their last session, thanks to higher Nasdaq on the back of  Apple’s better than expected earnings.

But early in the opening session today, U.S. stock futures are under pressure and trading negative.

That will make it difficult for day traders as markets will flip-flop in short term and traders will have to be on their toes through the session. Who said money making is easy business? :)

Expect a highly volatile session in global markets today. Keep an eye on U.S. stock futures, global markets will fluctuate with these numbers. Short term trading and profit booking will be better in this session, because, even though U.S. stock futures are trading negative at the time of writing, the last closing in U.S. indexes was quite positive and a continuation of their bounce back is very much alive.

Good luck and have a great day in stock markets today!

See you later.

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US Markets Today: Volatile, Apple Results ahead

Oct 20, 2014, (9:12 AM EDT)

“A” for Apple, “B” for Bears – that’s the new market rhyme for U.S. markets today :)

And I’m obviously in a very good mood as European  markets are turning deeply negative and looks  like that Dow Jones will be following DAX in the bears’ pit.

Apple ( Nasdaq: AAPL) will be declaring its 4th quarter results later today. IBM has already declared its disappointing results, dragging U.S. stock futures down.

European markets are trading with deep cuts and this might be the end of last week’s brief bounce back in global markets. (Going by today’s trading pattern, readers in Indian markets can expect a gap down opening tomorrow in their markets IF- I repeat, “if” U.S. markets close in the negative today).

Even though Dow Jones futures are trading highly negative at the time of writing, I’ll watch this index carefully as it is still range bound and the first levels of this range will be near last Friday’s low (16,100) and high levels (16,430).

Expect a volatile trading session in U.S. markets today, just like what we have been witnessing since last couple of months. Intra day session will continue to see tops and bottoms.

Good luck, have fun, have a great day in stock markets today!

See you later.

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Europe opens negative, U.S. stock futures slide

Oct 20, 2014, (3:10AM EDT)

I took one look at the opening numbers of DAX and my jaw dropped to the floor!

Boy, even a mega-bear like me was not expecting a NEGATIVE opening in this index! Or, for that matter, in European markets!

In fact, my heart was fluttering like a mosquito trapped in a lion’s paw before the opening bell in European markets, and I was muttering like, oh god, oh god, I hope it doesn’t open too high.

Too high? Right now Europe is trading too low!!

DAX is almost -60 points down in first few minutes of trading.

Surprisingly, FTSE100 is holding up.

U.S. stock futures trimmed some of their earlier gains. So did Indian markets.

If U.S. stock futures turn negative, then expect the “return of the bear” movie will again run to packed houses in stock markets :)

Till that happens, expect some volatile trading pattern in European markets as these are basically bound in a new range.

Good luck and trade carefully.

See you later.

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Indian Markets Today: Global Cues to dominate Trend

20 Oct, 2014 (8:21AM IST)

At the time of writing, SGX Nifty is showing big jump of more than 120 points, indicating a positive opening for Indian markets.

BUT, there is still more than an hour for that opening bell in Indian stock exchanges and global signals have started showing weakness, so be alert for any change in the trading pattern of SGX Nifty.

Going by current signals, Indian markets are poised for a gap up opening which will take Nifty back to its previous week’s range. Level 7928 had proved to be a big resistance for Nifty in that week and this week too, 7930-7960 levels will prove crucial for the index.

Indian markets will continue to trade based on global cues, that’s why the second half or the last hour’s trading pattern in these markets will provide clearer indication of the new range in Nifty.

Keep an eye on U.S. stock futures, as Nifty will follow their trading pattern. Last hour of the session will decide if Nifty will see a lower closing compared to the opening levels or the rally will continue after the gap up opening.

Good luck, trade carefully as Nifty can go in any direction.

See you later!

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World Markets Today: Facing Resistance in Bounce Back

20 Oct, 2014 (8:18AM  IST)

Oct 19, 2014, (10:47 PM EDT)

Time to shake away the weekend laziness, and get ready for our daily brain puzzles in global stock markets :)

Global markets are showing very, very interesting trading pattern at the time of writing! It looks like global markets are spooked by the drop in Russell 2000 more than the ally in other U.S. indexes on Friday last.

Russell 2000, As I had warned you, closed nearly -1.5% lower while  rest of the U.S. indexes rallied on Friday ( stating the week with a little bragging won’t hurt anybody :) ).

Today, once again, Russell 2000 futures have already started losing steam so I think we are going to see a very curious trading pattern in U.S. markets.

But that is almost 12 hours away from now. Before that, we have to watch Asian and European markets.

In numbers, Asian markets are rallying as these markets had missed the bounce back in their last session. In charts, Asian markets have stalled after a gap up opening and are refusing to rise any further after the initial jump, showing resistance at today’s high levels for major Asian indexes.

Another interesting this is; stock futures of Australian and Chinese markets have turned red! One more sign of weakness at current top levels.

SGX Nifty is showing a jump of more than 130 points, indicating a gap up opening in Indian markets and a return to previous range.

European markets are also in an interesting phase (everything in global markets is very interesting today J). FTSE100 showed lack of volume with its last session’s rally. DAX showed bigger volumes. That means, DAX might gain again, but FTSE100 has weak legs in this rally.

We might see a narrow, range bound session in global markets today, where markets will see  gap up opening and then stay range bound without much action.

Further action will depend on how U.S. stock futures trade through the session. High volatility is also expected, which is a normal sign of range bound markets.

Good luck, trade carefully, enjoy the return of markets after the weekend :)

See you later.

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