US Markets Today: Yellen hints at Rate Hike Possibility, Dollar Zooms

26 August 2016 (update : 11.58 AM EDT)

U.S. markets are falling after the Fed Vice Chairman, Stanley Fischer declared in an interview with CNBC that a rate hike was imminent as the U.S. economy and labor markets continued to improve. He said that “next Friday’s jobs data will likely have an impact on the process.

Next Friday? That means September rate hike is certain?

With that thought, U.S. indexes tumbled and now, any of these lower level are possible for Dow Jones- 18,400- 18,350 or even 18,250.

The correction has started.

(Earlier : 10.13 AM EDT)

Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair has told her audience in Jackson Hole that U.S. economy is improving and conditions for a rate hike have “strengthened in recent months.”

- Market reaction: Dow Jones is up 100 points, but not yet above 18,570; its resistance oh hourly charts. Back to watching up to which level this index will go- 18,600? 18,650? Or start a reversal from current levels?

( Earlier)

- The immediate reaction was seen in currency and commodities markets where the Dollar index zoomed and Gold dropped. Major U.S. indexes have turned choppy.

- As there has been no word (yet) about a September hike, Gold reversed it gears and climbed up, the Dollar index went down. Keep watching for many such ups and downs and jittery speculators try to decipher the Fed speak.

- Currency pairs going up and down like headless chickens trying to fight Rocky Balboa :) Now Euro zooms against USD. A few second ago Euro was headed underground.

- Janet Yellen keeps both bulls and bears guessing with her yes to rate hike then adding conditions to it. Here are her exact remarks that still say, the Fed is ready to hike rate but remains data- dependent.

“In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months. Of course, our decisions always depend on the degree to which incoming data continues to confirm the Committee’s outlook,” she said.

(8:16 AM EDT)

What a wonderful week this has been in stock markets! Thrilling, exciting, action-packed- not to say entertaining with crazy ups and downs in major global indexes.

The final and most awaited session in U.S. markets is still more than an hour away, but the Fed Chair, Janet Yellen has arrived for the Jackson Hole summit (Wyoming) and will be making a speech at 10 AM EDT. The financial world is not expected to move, breathe or blink till then.

Markets are expecting to hear something about the central bank’s rate hike plans. Specifically, if there is going to be a rate increase next month? This year? Or, will the Fed continue with its hemming-hawing financial gibberish that we read after every FOMC meeting.

In between, the GDP numbers from the U.S. economy will be released in a few minutes from now.

But today, nothing matters expect Janet Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole summit. Till then, its no use discussing trading levels of any index. We may or many not have a mini (or full blown) earthquake in markets based upon what the Fed Chair says (or leaves unsaid).

As we said, the fun-levels keep going up in markets :)

We’ll wait, keep our fingers crossed and cover LIVE how markets react to that event.

Stay tuned for more thrilling action in stock markets!

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Indian Markets Today: Volatile on Global Cues

 26 Aug, 2016 (9:00AM IST)

Indian markets had a big fall yesterday as European markets crashed in their early trading hours.

Nifty cracked the major support of 8,600 and closed much below its 20-Day Moving Average, an important technical signal.

Today, Indian markets will once again follow the global cues and any support or resistance in Nifty will depend on how U.S. stock futures and then European markets trade.

For Nifty, 8,619 marks its pivot level of the day. if the index succeeds in crossing above this levels- and STAYS higher, then it can achieve more gains. In that condition, Nifty may try to touch- cross above 8,632- 8,655 marks.

However, if Nifty turns negative and falls below its previous session’s low of 8,583, then it may trade lower to touch 8,556 or 8,520 levels- its lower supports.

After a big fall yesterday, markets nay try to achieve some balance in early trading hours, but the trend will depend on how bigger markets trade.

So watch those global cues, keep and eye on Nifty levels and trade with the trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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World Markets Today: Highly Volatile on Data, Fed

Fri, 26 Aug, 2016 (7:51AM IST)

25 August 2016 (10:14 PM EDT)

Global markets are in a stage that you see in the final round of fights in “Rocky” movies. Punches, fist- throws, ribs getting cracked,  bang here, bang there, eyes getting cut and swollen, blood dropping from nose, crowd going wild with excitement- and you sitting on the edge of your chair, holding your breath, forgetting to pop that popcorn in your mouth, heart beating quickly..

Yeah, all that is going to happen in global markets today thanks to the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s mcuh anticipated speech at Jackson Hole (Wyoming) summit and too many important economic reports from the European and U.S. economy- notably the GDP numbers.

Who need boxing when you can have such thrills in stock markets?

We have 12 hours till the Fed Chair’s speech for which  global financial markets and everybody associated with economy-capital markets-businesses-banks will be holding their breath to hear if Janet Yellen says anything related to the central bank’s rate hike. Will it happen soon? Or will she continue to be dovish?

Markets are already turning topsy-turvy in an effort to find answer of those questions.

For traders that means high levels of volatility.

U.S. markets once again closed negative overnight, and Asian markets are trading highly negative following that pattern.

But U.S. and European stock futures are trading mildly positive in the early hours of Asian session, right on the edge of green line, ready to tumble within the red zone again.

SGX Nifty is trading with some 20 points’ gain after a big fall yesterday, indicating a flat/ slightly positive opening in Indian markets soon.

Expect a weak session in global markets today, where volatility levels may remain high. European markets will lead the trend in the second half and right now, there are little indication that those markets will be trading higher than their previous high levels.

Watch how your local index trades and follow the trend line.

Good luck, enjoy the session!


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US Markets Today: Anxious on Good Data, Rate Hike Worries

25 August 2016 (8:49 AM EDT)

And we are back for another highly interesting session in U.S. markets!

European markets are down (DAX crashed nearly 150 points in early trading hours) and U.S. stock futures are also pointing to a lower opening.

Yesterday, Dow Jones had fallen to session’s low of 18,450 but recovered to close above its keenly watched support of 18,470.

Today’s low opening will make the index start below this important range level. What after that? Dow Jones can either bounce back to trade above 18,450 or tumble below this level to travel down to other supports of  18,430- 18,400. If the index falls below this even-number support of 18,400 then it might tumble down to 18,376- 18,350.

In any case, Dow Jones trading below 18,470 will be a negative indicator itself for U.S. markets and other markets in the world as well.

Markets are spooked about a possible rate hike in the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Many FOMC officials have started to ask for a rate hike now and the Fed is facing increasing criticism for putting off long-overdue rate hikes and making flimsy excuses to do so. The Fed Chair Janet Yellen has been in the center of such vociferous criticism for being too market-placating.

On Friday, the Fed Chair will make a public speech at Jackson Hole summit (Wyoming) and she is widely expected to hint at a rate hike by the central bank soon.

Whether that really happens or not, that will be known only after her speech. Till that time, markets will be involved in a volatile match between bearish and less bearish traders. Bull has gone into hibernation till the Fed’s comments are out of the way. U.S. markets have received some positive economic reports today, which is adding to the rate-hike anxiety in markets.

Wait for some minutes after the lower opening in U.S. markets and watch those Dow Jones support levels. If the index fails to sustain any bounce back, then we may see another negative session in these markets. In case the index survives a bounce back from lower levels, a range bound session will take place.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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Indian Markets Today: Volatile F&O Expiry Session

 25 Aug, 2016 (8:57AM IST)

Indian markets have their monthly Futures&Options expiration session today, and as usual, the session could be highly volatile as big traders square off their positions.

SGX Nifty is some 20 points higher but same cannot be said about NSE Nifty as this index has been opening up and down regardless of SGX Nifty’s numbers this week.

Still, Nifty has bounce back twice in last two sessions to close above its 20-Day MA line. That shows that this index and broader Indian markets are reluctant to go below current levels before the F&O extirpation.

No trend can be predicted on such a day but still, Nifty has more chances of trading positive above 8,644 (pivot level of the day) and below this level, selling pressure may increase. In that case, 8,627- 8,603 and 8,586 will be other support levels for Nifty.

On higher side, the index can try to recapture 8,667-, 8684 or even 9,707 levels.

Watch these levels and trade with the trend line.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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World Markets Today: Volatile, Range Bound Session

25 Aug, 2016, (8:51 AM IST )

24 August 2016 (11:22 PM EDT)

Global stock markets are set to witness another volatile and range bound session on Thursday, after U.S. markets closed in the red overnight but U.S. and European stock futures are trading slightly positive at the time of writing.

Asian markets are trading red and SGX Nifty has some gains, indicating another volatile opening in Indian markets today.

European markets have been clinching gains in last couple of sessions and today, their trend will once again mark the intra day trend in world markets. U.S. stock futures will continue to bounce and tumble with their European counterparts and then turn range bound when their own opening bell rings.

Expect major stock indexes in the world to remain under pressure before the Fed Chair’s speech on Friday. Markets are range bound so watch for bounce back from support levels and reversal from resistance levels.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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US Markets Today: Volatile, Staying within Previous Range

24 August 2016 (8:47 AM EDT)

The week continues to be as exiting for U.S. markets as ever- withe repetitive trading range. That is why range bound markets are so thrilling. Everyone knows when everyone else is going to sell (resistance) and everyone knows when everyone else is going to buy (support). All you have to do is check those levels, close your eyes and buy- sell with the herd :)

Yesterday, Dow Jones opened high, then collapsed and kept climbing down till the closing bell. Any index closing at its lowest level is quite a negative indication in itself.

So, today, we will once again watch the same Dow Jones levels that we have been watching since last week. In between, at 10 AM EDT, there will be many important economic reports including House Price Index and Crude Oil Inventory numbers. Like yesterday, these economic numbers may trigger some volatility in U.S. markets at that time.

Dow Jones has its multiple supports in quick succession near 18,540- 18,530- 18,500- 18,470. On the higher side, resistance levels are also stacked up in close proximity at 18,550- 18,600- 18,631.

The range is expected to remain in place till the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole (Wyoming) summit on Friday and whether she hints at a rate hike soon. If she does, markets may go into a correction next week. If there is no talk of rate hikes by the central bank any time soon, then markets may continue to remain range bound or climb in tiny numbers.

That will happen after Friday. Today, expect a range bound session in U.S. markets as long as Dow Jones stays above 18,470 level. If the index falls below this levels, and STAYS lower, then only a correction will start. Otherwise, the index and broader U.S. markets will continue to loop within the same high and low numbers.

Good luck, enjoy the session!


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Indian Markets Today: Wobbly before F&O Expiry

 24 Aug, 2016 (9:05AM IST)

Indian markets are looking weak before the Futures&Options expiration tomorrow.

Nifty fell below 8,600 yesterday, although recovered afterwards and closed above this support. But the index was already trading below its 20-Day Moving Average and now that levels (8,632) has become a strong resistance. Only above this level Nifty will have  chances of making more gains.

Below this strong resistance, Nifty will be prone to dropping to lower supports of 8,618- 8,594- 8,556 and 8,532.

Watch these levels and trade with the trend, which can be very volatile.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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World Markets Today: Range Bound, but Under Pressure

24 Aug, 2016 (8:57AM IST)

23 August 2016 (11:27 PM EDT)

Another exciting session begins in global markets with lots of possibilities of making money in both directions- only if you have self-discipline. Without this quality, range bound markets can quickly destroy all  your trading capital!

Global markets continue to trade within their current range tops and bottoms. Declining from the top levels (as U.S. markets did in their last session overnight) or jump from the bottom (as Indian markets did yesterday).

The Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s scheduled speech on Friday in keeping global markets on tenterhooks. Expect another session in markets where indexes will be more prone of turning down from higher levels than bouncing back from bottoms.

Asian markets are trading mixed, U.S. and European stock futures are negative and SGX Nifty is also considerably negative, indicating a lower opening in Indian markets soon.

Make the most of range bound markets by observing support and resistance levels of your local index and how the trend develops near those levels. That requires razor-like focus (like any other field) to succeed in such trend conditions as volatility levels will be very high.

Stay alert, take quick profits and trade with the short term trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!


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US Markets Today: Previous Range Continues

23 August 2016 (9:12 AM EDT)

Form watching Dow Jones, to Asia, to Europe.. now back to watching Dow Jones. It seems 24 hours have flew past in minutes and U.S. markets are back to square one. That means, back to trade in the same range where major indexes were trading 24 hours ago.

Before we discuss today’s trading levels for Dow Jones, it will be pertinent to remember, last week. on Monday, this mega index was trading at the high levels of 18,668.

Yesterday, it could muster strength only to reach the high of 18,570. That is almost 100 points lower than last week’s high point.

That shows a very slight slant in otherwise range bound trading pattern in U.S. markets.

On hourly charts, Dow Jones maintains resistance levels in quick succession near 18,550- 18,575- 18,600. While support levels are intact near 18,500- 18,470 marks.

This range is still in place and yesterday, Dow Jones traded in a classic range bound pattern; bouncing between strict support and resistance levels.

That pattern is expected to continue today, with some volatility thrown in at 10 AM EDT when a few economic reports will be released.

Overall, a highly volatile trading pattern is expected in U.S. markets where previous session’s high and low levels are expected to mark the range boundaries.

Watch those levels and trade with the short term trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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