World Markets Next Week: Here Comes the Fed

Sun, Jan 25, 2015

Fellow traders around the world, get ready for another thrilling, entertaining and as usual, action-packed sessions in global markets next week.

Markets have been very busy in the last week with surprise actions of Swiss National Bank and the ECB. And I have been busy with my second website (launched with my friend Matt) exclusively for U.S. markets, for investors in those markets and focusing exclusively on company news reports. It is leaping by hundred thousand ranking spots a day and has already been earning in triple digits. Thanks to all stock markets enthusiast in the world, people like me can launch businesses after business : )

My precious :)

My precious :)

 

U.S. markets have been giving me more reasons to feel happy,  especially Dow Jones which fell down by nearly -150 points in its last session ( and I was called a pervert for enjoying that fall and gloating about it.) Me? Pervert ? I am just a bear! What about those who gloat on central bank fueled rallies?!

Good thing for bears,  this week’s major central bank, the Federal Reserve won’t fuel any such rally, rather, it is creating anxiety in U.S. markets about its rate hike plans.

The Fed will declare its short term monetary policy on Wednesday, 28th Jan. Till then, U.S. markets will either remain range bound in their last week’s high and low points, or keep slipping down.

European markets are high on Draghi’s stimulus promise. The only worry that could dampen this spirit might come from Greece, where general elections are being held today and anti-bailout party, Syriza is expected to win the majority.

All that will become clear by Monday’s opening bell in Asian markets, which is still many hours away.

Till then enjoy the remaining weekend before the action, drama and entertainment  in  global markets starts again :)

See you then!

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US Markets Today: Volatile at the top

Jan 23, 2015, (9:31AM EST)

Well, well, well, look what the bears dragged in :)

U.S. stock futures!!

Starting from negative, to turning positive and now back in negative- that’s U.S. stock futures for you, struggling to keep their balance on the top and now turning their focus to the Fed after the ECB.

Global markets have started trading on local cues. That’s why European markets are continuing their rally on Draghi’s promises of massive QE. But U.S. stock futures are not following that rally today as they are worried about Yellen’s rate hike soon.

So, be ready for more drama, more action and a lot more entertainment in U.S. markets today. We saw huge tides of volatility in early session yesterday, and it would be better to be alert for similar chops and churns in the opening hour’s trade in U.S. markets.

Unlike European markets, major U.S. indexes have not crossed over their historic high levels, so expect these indexes to remain range bound in this week’s  high and low levels. Tests the trend after markets make their first high and low of the day, and then trade with the trend.

Good luck and enjoy changing winds in markets today :)

See you later!

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Indian Markets Today: Higher Opening, lower closing?

23 Jan, 2015 (9:25AM  IST)

Indian markets have been enjoying both local and global positive cues.

Today, both seem to be slipping away from these markets.

Rising crude oil prices will be cause for worry for India. The RBI governor had warned of this scenario last month when the whole world was pressurizing him for a rate cut. In his press conference, he had said “we are looking at what happens when oil prices start going up as suddenly.” Wise words, spoken to a crowd of fools clamoring for a rate cut.

They got their rate cut, now comes the crude episode, which might turn ugly if OPEC decided for cutting down oil production and oil prices zoom up as quickly as these have been coming down.

Nifty may look to rupee’s trading pattern today for intra day trading trend since USD/ INR currency pair’s trend might reflect how the FIIs are looking at future possibilities of Indian markets.

SGX Nifty has become range bound after a big gap up opening. Watch how Nifty behaves in its first hour of trading. If it breaks above the day’s high point, trade positively in Indian markets. If Nifty fails to sustain at higher levels and breaks down below the day’s low level then we might see some profit booking today.

Good luck and have fun!

See you later.

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World Markets Today: Starting with ECB Bang

23 Jan, 2015, (9:22 AM IST )

Jan 22, 2015, (10:53pm EST )

Let me tell you a story first.

Somebody has been promising to “do whatever it takes” to give you loads of free money so that you can enjoy your passion of gambling.

It goes on and on. Months pass. That money-lender keeps promising but nothing is given to you.

Finally, you get frustrated and threaten to jump off the cliff if that money is not given.

So, the money-lender makes a big show and dance of declaring the final delivery of a big package of free money for you. He announces that he is going to fill your pockets with trillions of euros.

You go berserk with happiness. And forget to see the fine print that says, this money will start coming to you after two months.

So, you have still got another promise but no money. Nobody knows what will happen in two months and whether you’ll really get that money.

That sums up the story of Draghi the Devil and Markets the Fool :)

U.S. and European markets saw big swings of volatile trading after the ECB President Mario Draghi announced the central bank’s asset buying program yesterday.

The first hurdle came immediately afterwards. Increasing oil prices after news broke out that Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (90) has passed away.

Oil prices went higher, hoping a change in OPEC’s policy that has been refusing to cut down its oil productions and bringing down crude oil prices.

When oil prices go up, inflation will rise, which is required in developed countries but will be a blow to emerging markets like India that has been rallying after one rate cut and hoping another in February.

Gain in crude could possibly mean loss in equities. I repeat, “possibly”.

Right now, U.S. and European stock futures are negative, Asian markets and SGX Nifty are highly positive.

Global markets have started with a bang on the ECB QE. It will be interesting to see if the closing will be with a whimper on rising crude oil prices.

And you thought it was buying and selling in stock markets :)

Keep your eyes open, watch how your local index behaves after the higher opening trade, and be ready to sell at high if markets show weakness at higher levels. If markets refuse to loss much and keep bouncing back after every small drop, then forget about selling and join the buyers

Good luck, trade safely and try to book some profits in stock markets today.

See you later.

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US Markets Today: Volatile, Range bound session Ahead

Jan 22, 2015, (9:34AM EST)

So the ECB has finally announced its massive QE or bond buying program. And, yet, European stock index are not showing any signs of euphoria.

DAX , which used to jump up by 200 points only on hopes of a QE, is now hardly 45 points up.

U.S. stock futures are showing higher gains, but going by the reluctance in European markets, it would be better to watch and wait markets in the initial hour and get into trading only after some stability comes in.

High level of choppiness and churning usually takes place on such days in the opening hour. It is the second half of trading, that usually shows the real trend in markets.

I’ll wait for that trend; you can throw the dice and test your luck  :)

Trade safely, and have a great session in markets today!

See you later.

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Indian Markets Today : Following Global cues

 22 Jan, 2015 (8:47AM IST)

Like other major markets, Indian markets have also started trading in smaller range, but still with a positive bias. Rupee is getting support and there are rumors of more rate cut in February by the RBI. That’s why Indian markets are enjoying more gains with every session.

Indian markets are expected to trade like previous sessions this week. A higher opening and after that a range bound trading with high volatility.

Nifty will follow global cues and wait for the ECB’s decision. Right now, SGX Nifty and global cues are all positive so a gap up opening and then some more gains are expected in Indian markets. Emerging markets like India usually see increased FIIs activity on such important decision making day, be it buying or selling. That makes such sessions unpredictable and volatile.

So, be ready for any sudden moves in Nifty today. The normal trading pattern will be range bound within 30-50 points, but based on internal information, this pattern can change into sudden drop or sudden jump.

Give markets some time to settle after the opening and then trade with the trend.

Have fun, enjoy another action-packed session in Nifty :)

See you later.

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World Markets Today: Waiting for the ECB

22 Jan, 2015, (8:39 AM IST)

Jan 21, 2015, (10:10pm EST)

Finally, this month’s D-day (Draghi Day :) ) has arrived.  The ECB is expected to declare a new QE or bond purchasing program to pour liquidity in the euro zone economy, which actually only goes to stock markets.

Yesterday, there were some reports about how many trillions of euro the ECB is going to provide for its QE program, which saw a drop in VIX and a slight increase in U.S. and European indexes from lower points of the day. But that was all. Markets seem to be cautious this time, not rallying with happiness. Maybe the market sharks and whale know something which is not up to their expectations and that’s why markets have paused in their track.

Right now, Asian markets are trading mixed, U.S. and European stock futures are positive but almost sleeping in their current positions, SGX Nifty is highly positive but moving like a snail.

This “pause” or slow motion, range bound trading is expected to continue in global markets for almost 12 hours till the ECB declares the size of its asset buying program.

Till then, expect the unexpected in markets. That would mean high volatility and sudden moves and turns based on rumors, speculation or news reports.

Trade small, trade safely- that’s the mantra for today’s session.

Good luck and enjoy the pre-ECB sluggishness in markets. After that, a lot of volatility and a final trend pattern might emerge in global markets.

See you later.

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US Markets Today: Down, as VIX turns higher

Jan 21, 2015, (9:19AM EST)

Awesome! Euro is running up just a day before the ECB is “supposed” to deliver its massive QE?

That signals trouble in (QE) paradise :)

Maybe that’s why the S&P 500 VIX futures are also running up and as a consequence, U.S. stock futures and most of the European indexes are trading highly negative.

Looks like bears are having a party before the party :)

That’s all you need to know for trading in today’s session. Watch S&P 500 VIX futures. Global markets and U.S. futures have been following this index today and that pattern will continue for the session in U.S. markets. If VIX continues to remain positive then U.S. markets will remain negative and vice versa.

Highly volatile and range bound session is expected in these markets where yesterday’s high and low will create the immediate range.

Good luck, enjoy the session, have a great day in markets today!

See you later.

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Indian Markets Today: Global cues will decide trend

Wed, 21 Jan, 2015 (9:20AM )

Indian markets are having the best days of their lives :)

The RBI gifted a rate cut, the ECB is expected to deliver its QE; both local and global cues are providing more liquidity to these markets and so, FIIs are poring money in Nifty.

That might continue today, at least in the earlier half of the session. The second half will be dominated by how global markets behave. The ECB arrives tomorrow and any whiff of what that central bank is going to do, will decide if more money is poured in Nifty or the money starts flowing out.

Don’t look at any level now, just observe how Nifty behaves in the first half an hour of trading. If it crosses above day’s high level, then trade positive, if it crosses below day’s low level made during that time frame, then expect a lower session in markets.

Good luck and trade safely!

See you later.

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World Markets Today: Volatile Session Ahead

21 Jan, 2015, (9:08 AM IST)

Jan 20, 2015, (10:37pm EST)

Let me first warn you, global markets are showing weird pattern today so be careful with your trades, wind can change direction in a split second in such markets, as we saw in U.S. markets in their last session.

Weird? Why?

Because S&P 500 Volatility index (VIX) is dropping, causing a jump in S&P 500 futures, Nadaq futures and European index futures. BUT- Dow Jones futures are refusing to budge and SGX Nifty is turning lower from its day’s high levels.

That is weird, indicating that markets sharks and whales and elephants and mammoths are all betting on different things. In short, that means that small traders will get trampled in markets no matter whatever direction they trade :)

That does not applies to those traders who wait, watch and then trade with the trend.

Another “weird” indication is surfacing in forex markets where euro is trading positive just a day before the ECB’s meeting! Odd, very odd.

So fellow traders, watch your money and watch your trades in markets today. Markets will be very volatile, will follow no rules and any rumor, speculation, anticipation, hope and fear will make markets zoom up or down through the session.

Trade small, look for smaller profits and do not overtrade today. Short term trading will be better in the direction if your local index.

Expect a range bound and highly volatile session in world markets. Yesterday’s low and high will make today’s immediate range.

Good luck, enjoy the action packed session in markets today!

See you later.

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