US Markets Today: High Opening, Cautious Trading

Oct 7, 2015, (9:33AM EDT)

Time to brag some more! After all, it doesn’t happen everyday that Dow Jones and S&P 500 oblige someone.

But they are, obliging us by happily jumping towards our targets of 17,000 and 2000 respectively.

We had been writing about new targets for Dow Jones and S&P 500 since last week, today’s high index futures are pointing towards a gap up opening and inching closer to those targets.

U.S. index futures had a volatile session, starting in negative and then rallying through the Asian and European sessions.

European markets also had a volatile session and dipped precariously earlier, before rallying to the days high levels.

Currency markets have been witnessing one of the most volatile session in recent days, where all currencies have been swinging up and down against the Dollar one day before the Fed’s meeting minutes.

But equities are pointing to a higher open and we might see either a range bound session after that, or more gains.

The real action will start in global markets tomorrow when Chinese markets will open their gates for trading after a week’s holiday and U.S. markets will receive the Fed’s meeting minutes from September, showing what the central bank thinks about recovery in the U.S. economy.

Tomorrow is another day, let’s enjoy the session in U.S. markets today. We will be watching if Dow Jones touches 17,000 today.

You can do the same!

Good luck, enjoy the session.

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Indian Markets Today: Volatile Session on Global Cues

7 Oct, 2015 (9:11AM IST)

U.S. markets hit the pause button in their last session and today, we might see a range bound and highly volatile session in Indian markets following similar global cues.

SGX Nifty has been hovering near its previous closing, indicating a flat or negative opening in Nifty today.

Nifty has its immediate rage between 8,200- 8,100. This lower level also happens to be a major technical support of 50-Day Moving Average, so Nifty will try to keep above this level if global cues support.

However, if global cues turned highly negative then Nifty might turn lower than this level and seek support near 8,050 and 8,021 levels. For Indian markets, other negative factors include a jump in Oil prices and drop in rupee.

Expect a range bound and highly volatile session in Indian markets, global cues will dominate the trend. The tilt is negative at the time of writing in these markets.

Good luck, trade safely!

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World Markets Today: Slightly lower, No Stimulus from BoJ,

7 Oct, 2015 (9:02AM IST)

Oct 6, 2015, (11:31pm EDT)

Although equity markets are relatively calm, there have been multiple earthquakes in forex markets (I have been surfing there for hours), where dollar and other currencies have been doing cartwheels after the Bank of Japan declared its monetary policy.

Equity markets have received a slight disappointment, as the BoJ did not declare any new stimulus. Although not much was expected but markets are always hopeful for some coins whenever big banks hold their policy meeting.

In fact, the BoJ expressed hopes for an improvement in their economy.

Uh-oh. That was an anti-climax for stimulus hopes and that’s why the Dollar index and U.S. stock futures have turned negative. Euro and Yen have strengthened against USD and for the time being, the trend has turned weak.

BoJ will hold its press conference in around two hours and global markets could become range bound till then.

The rally has paused in global markets and we might have a lower session today as some profit booking might come in before the Fed’s meeting minutes tomorrow.

Keep an eye on U.S. stock futures and trade with the trend. Markets might become highly volatile as indexes become range bound.

Good luck, enjoy the session.

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US Markets Today: Volatile, Waiting for next High Run

Oct 6, 2015, (9:22AM EDT)

The days of central bank fueled “hope rally” are back. And how!

Look at DAX, look at Dow Jones, look at any index- all have made insane gains in last couple of sessions.

U.S. markets have been rallying on hopes of rate hike delay from the Fed and more easy money from other big banks, leading global markets in a surprise rally like a Pied Piper.

European markets have recovered after an initial drop and are rallying now with healthy gains. U.S. stock futures have also given up their pretence of trading low and have almost become flat just before the opening bell.

Today’s biggest event is going to be the ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech at 1 PM EDT. Markets are counting on the ECB for more stimulus as euro zone economy has been slowing down.

For that reason, we might see either more gains in U.S. markets till then, or a range bound, slow session.

After Draghi’s speech, based on what he promises to markets, or doesn’t, markets will either jump up or trade flat. Right now, there is not any strong reason for U.S. markets to go down so don’t look for one.

Don’t know about you but I’m waiting for Dow Jones to reclaim 17,000. Will that happen today? Let’s wait and watch!

Good luck, enjoy the session.

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Indian Markets Today: High opening on Global cues

 6 Oct, 2015 (9:05AM IST)

As is obvious by gains in SGX Nifty, Indian markets are expecting a higher opening in today’s session.

A big open will take Nifty near its first and major resistance of the day, 8,163.

From here, Nifty and broader Indian markets will follow global cues. If U.S. stock futures continues to decline, then Indian markets will turn lower from their higher opening, but not much. The current trend is that of rally fueled by central bank easing hopes and markets just look higher on such triggers.

Indian markets will also receive their Services PMI numbers later in the day.

Expect a volatile and range bound session in Indian markets today. Global cues will decide intra day trend in these markets; levels do not matter now.

So watch those cues and trade with the trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session.

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World Markets Today: Volatile, Range Bound on Central Bank Hopes

6 Oct, 2015, (8:54 AM IST)

Oct 5, 2015, (11:23pm EDT)

What an amazing “party” we saw in Wall Street on Monday! U.S. markets piled on some more gains on their Friday rally and Dow Jones jumped by 300 points.

In just two sessions, Dow Jones has accumulated nearly 800 points from its Friday lows!

Asian markets are showing a “positive hangover” form that party and have jumped up in early session.

But, from here, global markets are expected to turn cautious as major events are going to start taking shape on economic calendar for this week.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement is expected, although not confirmed, and global markets are hoping for more easy polices from the central bank.

Thursday will be very big day as meeting minutes for both the ECB and the Fed’s last month’s meetings will be released.

Also, Chinese markets will return to trading rings after a week’s national holiday.

In between, there will be an avalanche of various economic reports related to employment and economic productivity.

That is why U.S. and European stock futures have turned slight low in early session on Tuesday. Taking a breather and tucking in their feet preparing to run- in either direction.

Asian markets are all rallying. SGX Nifty has gained more than 50 points, signaling a gap up opening in Indian markets today.

But U.S. stock futures are taking a breather so there is no fuel to propel the opening rally in global markets for here. So, after a high opening, global markets will follow cues from U.S. stock futures like previous sessions.

If S&P 500 futures continue to decline then global markets might also give up their earlier gains and closed below their opening levels.

However, if U.S. stock futures again start turning upwards then the rally in global markets will continue.

Expect a volatile session in markets today, with intra day trend being dominated by U.S. stock futures.

Good luck, enjoy the session.

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US Markets Today: Rally on Hopes of More Stimulus

Oct 5, 2015, (9:23AM EDT)

I had been laughing since last week, through the weekend and now, on this first session of the new week- reading various news reports in which ex-perts are now saying, actually, last Friday’s job reports were not so bad! Even on Sunday, there were reports that the next week will be very bad for investors! And what do we have?

Market rallies from Asia to Europe to U.S. stock futures!

Just as we had told you, it would happen. Just as we had told you last Friday that it could happen!

All this happiness is stemming from two reasons; first, the U.S. economy is not worsening, it is progressing but at a slower pace. Second, because of this slow pace of recovery in all major economies, the big central banks like the ECB and the Bank of Japan are getting ready for more monetary stimulus to counteract any diminishing effect if the Fed hikes its lending rates.

For markets, that has become like having its cake and eating it too!

BUT- be careful because there are many road blocks ahead in the form of economic reports.

Today, U.S. markets will receive a number of manufacturing and other important reports. So, markets could become volatile after the opening bell. Good reports will bring more positive gains. I’m not sure how markets will react to bad reports because that will be negative for economy nut positive for a relief from rate hike worries.

So, just wait till these reports have come and gone. U.S. markets still have some space left to cover till their range highs so  gain are expected till those levels are reached.

For S&P 500, that mark will arrive near 2,000.

For Dow Jones, it will be 17,000.

Wait and watch how long markets take to reach those levels.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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Indian Markets Today: Rallying on Global cues

5 Oct, 2015 (8:39AM IST)

Indian markets are enjoying double benefits from last week’s development in U.S. markets, first the Fed’s rate hike now seems distant, so emerging markets like Indian can breathe little easier on currency front. Second, Wall Street rallying so Indian equities will also follow the same pattern.

SGX Nifty is pointing to a big gap up opening in Indian markets today. Nifty is range bound on broader level and faces resistance near 8000 and 8,100.

So, after a high opening, everything will depend on how global cues trend, especially after European markets open.

On higher side, Nifty’s trading range will be between 8008 – 8,040 – 8073.

However, if global cues start turning lower, then Nifty will have supports near 7,995 and 7,963- 7,918.

Watch how global cues trade and expect Nifty to follow a similar trading pattern.

Good luck, trade safely.

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World Markets Today: Asia Rallies, U.S. Stock Futures Range Bound

5 Oct, 2015, (8:20 AM IST)

Oct 4, 2015, (10:49pm EDT )

After relaxing over the weekend, global markets are back to work (working seven days a week is only for those who haven’t got a life, obviously.) The best thing about being in stock markets is, there is nothing routine here, nothing boring.

So after the Wall Street’s “miracle” last Friday, Asian markets are happily rallying on this first session of the week. Nikkei is 200 points up, Hang Seng is 400 points up, Australian markets are more than 1% higher, SGX Nifty is jumping with 57 points’ lead, indicating a gap up opening in Indian markets later today.

Overall, celebration all around in Asia.

The only obstacle in this green rally is a subdued Dollar index which is stopping U.S. stock futures  for going higher.

As Chinese markets have gone for a week’s holiday, global markets are now trading on the U.S. economy’s growth possibilities and that looks dimmed right now.

That is why a lower dollar is keeping U.S. stock futures subdued, European futures are following these cues and if, things don’t improve later in the session, rest of the world will also become subdued resulting in a high opening, lower closing day.

However, right now, U.S. stock futures are strictly range bound. As long as futures of U.S. benchmark indexes, especially those of S&P 500 and Dow Jones stay range bound, it will show strength in last session’s rally and any improvement in U.S. stock futures will trigger more gains in other markets.

So, keep an eye on S&P 500 futures. This index is strictly range bound between 1942 and 1937 at the time of writing. Below this, support comes at 1935 and 1930.  Only when these lower numbers are breached, one can safely assume that a negative trend has taken over S&P 500 futures and global markets will also start turning lower.

However, if the resistance of 1944 is breached in S&P 500 futures, then buyers will jump in markets and we can expect further rally in global markets.  At this time, the possibility of a positive breakout in this index looks more probable.

Please remember, global markets are in a very fragile and nervous environment, so any rumor or doubt of negative news can spark a negative stampede. Traders must keep strict stop loss in all their positions and trade in smaller lots. Markets are basically trading in a broader range and volatility levels are always high in range bound markets.

Good luck, enjoy the first session of this new week!

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US Markets Laugh at Experts, Close with big recovery!

Sat, Oct 3, 2015

Trader friends.

Friday’s session in U.S. markets was the happiest one for our small community.

Because (our subscriptions hit through the roof, yes!) we witnessed a “miracle” in U.S. markets, where all ex-perts and anal-ysts called jobs reports “very, very ugly” and ranted about no hope for the U.S. economy, but U.S. markets turned around after a big gap down opening and laughed all the way to close at the week’s highest level! (just as we had predicted- read it here!)

Dow Jones closed at 16,472 (we had expected for 16,500) which was a recovery of nearly 500 points from its low level of the day! The index closed 200 points higher than its previous closing.

It was the biggest reversal in 4 years!

U.S. markets rally

And, we were the ONLY ONES in the whole universe, who told you that there was NOTHING WRONG with the jobs reports and that U.S. markets could see a higher closing than opening levels. We wrote this right after the opening bell, when Dow Jones was trading with a loss of -250 points in early minutes of trading. Read our “historic” report here :)

Related Post: US Markets Today: Lower Opening, Higher Closing day?

We were certain of a positive session at that time even though the ex-perts were going hysterical with negative predictions, frothing at the mouth saying there was no hope for the U.S. economy after such “ugly” jobs reports. (that’s why we call them ex-perts; they are ex -of all things, ex-intelligence, ex-knowledge, ex-IQ etc, etc).

Here is what one such ex-pert said about Friday’s job report, and was widely reported by the world media:

“You can’t throw lipstick on this pig of a report,” said Brian Jacobsen, a portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

Pig of a report? Really? Markets thought otherwise because barely an hour after this statement, Dow Jones started climbing up, and U.S. markets,rallied to the week’s highest level!

Here is “before” and “after” headlines about U.S. markets on Friday:

Before - U.S. job growth stumbles, raising doubts on economy

After- Wall Street ends higher in sharp turnaround

And this is our headline- before, during and after-  US Markets Today: Lower Opening, Higher Closing day?

What made us rebel against the world and declare- literally challenge -that U.S. markets were going to close higher?

The same job reports, which ex-perts were tearing apart. We saw plain numbers that were better than previous numbers and ignored the experts’ estimates (who are these experts anyway? Self-proclaimed ignorant, what else!)

And this is what we saw: all numbers better than previous numbers:

U.S. jobs report

And this is what the jobs numbers looked like against the estimates:

U.S. jobs report

Now the question arises, why these so called ex-pert were hell bent on proving that U.S. economy was doomed and jobs reports were hellish- even though they were not?

Because they had already made up their mind that Friday’s jobs data will be horrible and it will rattle the markets.

This is a report from news agency Reuters that talks about “potential market-rattling jobs data”  one day before the actual reports arrived:

A day before September’s potentially market-rattling U.S. employment data, separate reports showed growth at U.S. factories slowed in September while weekly jobless claims pointed to a tightening labor market…”

“potentially market-rattling U.S. employment data”—  How could anyone say with certainty, one day before, that the next day’s data will will be “market-rattling?

Because market-manipulators wanted to rattle markets and force the Fed’s to stay away from any rate hike.

It sound far fetched but one wonders, why Chinese markets started crashing suddenly and improved after the Fed left its rates unchanged? And just when the Fed again started talking about rate hike this year, sudden reports started emerging that the jobs situation was bad and this company and that company was making –or planning to make- so and so job cuts?

If you go back and look at “estimates” for this months jobs data, you’ll find those almost double than previous numbers. In shorts, the “estimates” were so high that any actual data would have fallen short! And then selling would have started with all the panic created by ranting and yelling ex-perts on tv channels, which did happen initially.

But then, rebels like this small (but intelligent) trader stood away from the heard, waited till the majority could see the truth of jobs reports, that the numbers were actually higher than previous numbers; and then we, the small majority of intelligent traders, started a tiny wave of support to markets which was soon joined by all. Rest, as they say, is history!

Friday brought a big defeat to market-manipulators. And a lesson for small traders; that don’t listen to ex-perts. They have their own agenda, which is as moronic as they themselves are. Use your intelligence and sit on the fence during such morons-induced volatility. Then step in when the frenzy dies, trade with the trend and rake in cool moolah.

Which we did in currency markets on Friday :)

Enjoy the weekend, recharge your batteries, and come back on Monday for more entertainment in markets.

Cheers to small traders; cheers to our best friend, the stock markets!

See you later.

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