US Markets Today: More Losses Ahead?

Jun 27, 2016, (9:16 AM EDT)

U.S. markets gave a negative technical signal in their session last Friday.

While almost all other major markets recovered from their lower levels after the Brexit fall, major indexes in U.S. markets never recovered after a gap down opening and ended highly negative.

That was a signal of more weakness in these markets.

Dow Jones closed below its major support of 17,500 and today, it seems that the index will probably open below / near its lowest support of 17,300.

European markets have also failed to sustain their early recovery in today’s session.

U.S. markets can only hope to find support near their opening levels today and if Dow Jones fails to sustain above 17,300 then the index will be in a very weak position and could go down to 17,200 either today or in coming few sessions.

Give markets time to settle after the opening, watch for any recovery then trade with the trend which looks negative right now.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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Indian Markets Today: Rupee, Global Cues to Dominate Trend

27 Jun, 2016 (8:48AM IST)

Indian markets will follow the global trend and to some extent, the trading pattern of rupee/dollar currency pair.

Right now, rupee is tumbling against dollar and is trading below 68, which made SGX Nifty dip by more than 50 points in early trade.

Since then, U.S. stock futures have recovered slightly and SGX Nifty is also trying to pare its losses following a similar recovery pattern.

That indicates a volatile session in Indian markets where major indexes will follow global cues and will either rise or fall based on the trend in bigger markets.

Nifty could see a subdued and range bound early session if global markets remain range bound, then try to recover if European markets stage any comeback.

If that does not happen, and European markets continue with a negative trend, then Indian markets may follow the same trend.

In any case, Nifty has support near 7,976 and 8,038 levels which will act as resistance if the index falls below these levels.

In between, 8,000 and 8,100 are stronger support and resistance areas respectively.

Indian markets had made a big recovery from lower levels in their last session and that had happened with good volumes. Technically speaking, that means these markets will try to recover more than drop again, so do not rush with short bets till the trend indicates for it.

Watch these levels and global cues, then trade with the trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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World Markets Today: Volatile, Seeking Support after Brexit Drop

27 Jun, 2016, (8:36 AM IST)

Jun 26, 2016, (11:05pm EDT)

Global stock markets are taking their trading cues from currency markets today.

Nikkei is trading slightly positive after a huge fall on Friday after Brexit.

Bank of Japan has mentioned its intentions to intervene in forex markets if need be and that has provided this support to Japanese markets.

On the other hand, euro and pound are still continuing with a decline, putting pressure on U.S. and European stock futures that are trading highly negative in early hours in Asia.

SGX Nifty is also negative as Indian rupee falls against dollar, indicating a lower opening in Indian markets soon.

The “financial elite” have taken unexpected hammering at the hands of common people and have suffered humongous losses. That is why mass media is creating a fear hysteria against Brexit and there are various efforts to portray it as a mistake and try to revert it by those financial elites. Central banks will be roped in to help them and various comments/ declaration of monetary help could be coming markets’ way.

This “hype” of help and reality of European Union’s disintegration crisis may keep markets volatile.

There may be feeble attempts to recover losses but bigger investors will not come back in markets quickly so possibilities of lower trend are higher, especially if European markets continue to fall.

Watch the early trade carefully then follow the trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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World Markets on Monday: Weak Opening in Asia Session

27 Jun, 2016 (3:56AM IST)

Jun 26, 2016, (6:26pm EDT)

Update: Emergency meeting going on between Government and the Bank of Japan to tackle Brexit impact on markets. The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is also present in this meeting. Could there be some stimulus coming? Will it be enough to mitigate the Brexit volatility? We will report live, stay tuned.

Earlier: 

Global markets have started their new week in Asia, currency markets have opened and stock futures have started trading for the first session of a new week.

U.S. stock futures have opened with 0.50% cuts. At the time of writing Dow Jones futures are down by 100 points, Nikkei futures are showing more losses, euro is down 0.57% and pound continues with deep cuts, currently down by 1.75%. New Zealand markets are first to open and their main index is down by 1.18% at this time.

These are very early trading numbers and may change – either for better or for worse, by the time Asian markets fully open.

The so called losses last week in world markets were not actually any loss at all, if one looks at gains made a week previously. Markets had given up only those gains and closed near the levels where they were on June 16, when the assumed no-Brexit rally had started globally. You can check technical charts to see those levels and compare with last Friday’s closing levels.

But today, if markets trade lower than last Friday’s levels, then only the true Brexit correction will start.

Let see if that happens in this session, or markets manage to hold on to their nerves.

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US Markets Today: Volatile, Looking for Support after Brexit

Jun 24, 2016, (8:26 AM EDT)

For the first time, common people have taken the wind out of market- speculators’ sails (globally) by voting for Brexit.

After the killing of Jo Cox, a British Parliamentarian and anti-Brexit campaigner, global markets rallied, as market-whales and speculators took it for granted that “Brexit” danger has been “managed” and now an emotional public will vote against Brexit. It was a rally by the 1%, for the 1%, of the 1%, lacking volume (read general support).

Unfortunately for them, Brexit happened. Stock markets all over the world were literally gobsmacked by this anti-climax to their “event-management” capacity. They forgot, it was not some economic data or central bank decision that could be managed.

That is the only reason why global markets are falling. They did not see it coming. They lost that one big bet that they thought, was already in their pockets.

U.S. stock futures and European markets have pared some of their losses in last few minutes as these market-speculators took some consolation in negative Goods Orders reports from the U.S. economy. Negative economic reports mean, maybe new stimulus for the Fed?

We have yet to hear what the market- friendly Fed has to say about this unexpected turn of events. Will the Fed Chair come to market’s rescue and make some comment that will help markets bounce back?

Anything can happen. Trillions of money has been wiped out globally in all corners of financial markets; currencies, bonds, stocks, commodities.

Now, markets and market-managers will try to recover those losses.

So traders should watch out for any support coming in after the gap down opening in U.S. markets today.

Dow Jones futures are still -500 points down, indicating that this mega index will open near its major support of 17,500. Usually, markets recover in initial trading after such gap down start. The thing to watch will be, how much Dow Jones will recover and if the closing levels will be better than the opening numbers? If that happens, then it will provide some balance to global markets next week.

However, if Dow Jones keeps below 17,500 then it will be a negative indication of this index and broader U.S. markets and we may see more gloom and doom next week in global markets too.

Keep your fingers crossed and watch how Dow Jones trades after the opening bell. The index could trade between 17,500- 17,600 on the upper side or between 17,500- 17,400 on the lower side initially. Any higher recovery than this will provide relief to broader U.S. markets. At the same time, if Dow Jones tumbles below these lower supports then a negative trend could emerge in U.S. markets.

Consider all possibilities, do not make the same mistake as markets did, only follow the trend after it takes shape.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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European Markets Set To Open With Deep Cuts after Brexit

Friday, 24 June 2016 (7:47 AM BST)

Breaking News: UK Prime Minister David Cameron has declared that after losing the Brexit vote, he will step down, handover will take place in  October.

Earlier: 

After the Brexit camp’s win, European markets are set to open with deep cuts.

DAX (Germany) is seen as the biggest sufferer as its futures have tumbled nearly 1200 points (more than 11%).

FTSE 100 (U.K.) and CAC 40 (France) futures have lost nearly 11% from their previous close.

As it is said, never assume anything in markets and today global markets are testing their own medicine by “assuming” before the referendum results that Brexit will not happen.

Now, markets are pinning their hopes that the Bank of England will step in to help pound and provide some support to this falling currency and stock markets.

If that happens, European markets could get some breathing space after the lower opening on this dramatic day.

Otherwise, we might see a continuous lower trend in European markets.

U.S. markets are also expected to open with losses, but how deep, that will depend on how European markets trade after the initial loss.

All eye are on FTSE 100 today to see if this index can recover this shock or drags down other market some more.

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Brexit winning, Global markets Crash!

 24 Jun, 2016

Breaking News: The BBC has called it for “Leave”, predicting a victory for leave option in Brexit by 4 points, 52% to 48%.

Update: Nikkei down by more than -1,000 points as Sky news confirms “Leave” votes winning the Brexit referendum.

- Indian rupee falls below 68 against dollar, Indian markets set to open with heavy losses.

Update: The Guardian is reporting that the Bank of England might intervene in currency markets to save pound from further fall and cut the central bank’s lending rates. Pound is down by nearly 9% against dollar now.

Earlier:

Though the final results of Brexit referendum in the U.K. are still a few hours away, it is clear that “Leave” camp is winning the referendum and the European Union could well lose this big member.

At the time of writing, “Leave” and “Remain” options have gained 48% and 52% votes respectively in early results. Out of 382 local authorities, 210 are yet to declare their results. So we might see more drama in global markets before all the results are out.

Right now, U.S. and European stock futures are showing HUGE crash-

Dow Jones futures down by -500 points.

DAX and FTSE 100 futures have lost more than 8%. DAX futures down by more than -800 points, FTSE 100 by more than -500 points (CNBC had reported that in case of “leave” option’s win, share markets in the U.K. might remain closed.)

SGX Nifty is nearly -200 points down (more than 2%).

Nikkei has lost nearly -500 points.

The Dollar index has jumped by more than 2%, euro lost by equal amounts but pound sterling is bleeding losses, down by 7.81% by now.

Crude Oil futures are also down by nearly 4%.

Right now, this is the situation. It can change with more results from Brexit referendum. Any improvement in “Remain” vote share will improve global markets but increase in “Leave” percentage points will deteriorate market conditions further.

Stay tuned for further updates.

We’ll be back with more market reaction.

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Indian Markets Today: Crashing with Global Markets

 24 Jun, 2016, (8:24 AM IST )

SGX Nifty is nearly 2% down at the time of writing as global markets crash on Brexit win possibilities.

Indian rupee has also fallen to 68 against dollar.

If global markets conditions do not improve, then things could get murky for emerging markets like India that are more like speculators’ den than any real indication of economic conditions.

FIIs had already been taking their money out after the RBI Governor, Raghuram Rajan’s exit and if Brexit becomes official, then Indian markets will suffer a double whammy in the long run.

Today, Nifty might open near its major support of 8,070. Expect high levels of volatility in the initial trading as people will rush to settle their previous positions.

Only if U.S. stock futures recover, Indian markets will find any support at lower levels. Otherwise, these markets will also follow the global decline.

Rupee could also affect the trading so keep an eye on this currency’s trading pattern.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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US Markets Today: Jobless Claims Fall, Will Fed Worries Return?

Jun 23, 2016, (9:21 AM EDT)

European stock markets and euro in currency markets have been rallying as markets believe Brexit is not going to happen.

U.S. stock futures have also been trading with big gains, indicating that major U.S. indexes might open near their all- time high levels.

But then some positive reports came from labor market where weekly U.S.  jobless claims fell to near 43 –year low.

As we had written before, stock markets have become used to trading in a broader range and whenever markets reach higher levels of this range, some or other fear and worry becomes an excuse for markets to reverse their trend and go back to support levels.

So today, after rallying on assumed Brexit rejection, U.S. and European markets may go back to fretting about the Fed’s rate hike.

That is why DAX has trimmed some of its earlier gains and U.S. markets might also not rally beyond their range resistance levels.

It is interesting to see how markets are certain that Brexit will not happen even though the results are more than 12 hours away (CNBC has given a good timeline here about Brexit post-poll scenario/ results etc).

In today’s trading, Dow Jones has resistance near 17,940- 18,000 levels.

We can either see a narrow range bound session near these levels after the gap up opening- or a higher open/ lower closing like yesterday.

Watch how markets behave after the gap up opening, then follow the trend line for intraday trading.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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Indian Markets Today: Range Bound, Volatile on Global Cues

23 Jun, 2016 (9:14AM IST)

Indian markets showed the nervousness in global markets when yesterday their major indexes fell with a sudden crash. Although markets recovered after that but it show how jittery these markets are.

Nifty still has support near 8,200 and its trading range will be near yesterday’s high and low levels (8,250- 8,150).

In between it has smaller support near 8,180 and smaller resistance near 8,230.

Expect Indian markets to remain highly volatile and range bound with global cues. If global cues start dropping or climbing, Indian markets will follow similar trend. Rupee will add to volatility with its own trading pattern.

Watch those Nifty levels and trade with the trend.

Good luck, enjoy the session!

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